Vuelta a España 2019 – Stage 15 Preview

As expected, today’s stage was destined to be sprint. A big crash in the final kilometer however decimated the field and only a handfull of riders were able to actually sprint for the victory. In the end, Sam Bennet won with incredible ease in front of a very strong Richeze, who was able to go for his own chance as Jakobsen completely blew up on the final uphill stretch,

Valverde and Pogacar both went down in the crash, but luckily it seems like their injuries are nothing serious and it shouldn’t hinder them in the upcoming days. Mezgec on the other hand wasn’t so lucky. One of the big favorites for today, he hit the ground very hard and had to abandon with what looked like a serious shoulder injury.

The Route:

We are staying in Asturias tomorrow, as stage 15 starts in the town of Tineo. The route then heads south towards the Asturian mountains, before heading back north and finishin atop of the grueling Puerto del Acebo.

As for the GC, since there is 30 kilometers of semi-flat descending from the top of the semi-final climb up to the final climb, the largest differences will probably be made on the final climb: de Puerto del Acebo

A gruelling climb with only very little sections underneath 10%. A GC rider who explodes at this point in the race will not lose seconds, but minutes.

The Race:

Given the type of parcours and the number of strong climbers that are behind already, there is actually quite some chance for the breakaway to battle for victory. There is very little true flat, and the majority off the day goes either up- or downhill.

On the other hand we have riders like Lopez and Quintana, who see their chances of clawing back time on Roglic shrink by the day, so if they are still eye-ing for the top spot of the podium, they will benefit from making the race as tough as possible, hoping to crack Roglic in the process. We know that Lopez will ride aggressive regardless of whether it will be effective or not. We think that some other riders might have given up their hopes of winning the Vuelta at this point, and will be more focussed on maintaining their GC position or stealing a spot from someone who is not Roglic.

We’d say it’s 50/50 break/gc, so we will discuss both scenario’s before announcing our winner.

The Weather:

Low temperatures, sun and a nice breeze from the north-east, a perfect racing day!

The Favorites (GC):

Primoz Roglic
Managed to stay upright today, and showed no signs of cracking the day before on the Alto de los Machucos. Tomorrow will be more suited towards the true climbers, so Roglic will follow wheels and focus on not losing time/limiting time loss knowing that he has a comfortable gap in the GC.

Alejandro Valverde
Was involved in the crash today so no idea how he will perform tomorrow. Valverde was climbing really well, but this stage seems more suited towards Quintana. We think we will see Valverde in a similar role as Roglic.

Tadej Pogacar
If he is okay tomorrow will be a big day for Pogacar. This is his terrain, but since he was quite damaged in today’s crash we have no idea if it will effect him. A healthy Pogacar is a favorite for tomorrow’s stage.

Nairo Quintana
Will keep fighting until the end. Last friday we saw some more impressive offensive riding by Quintana, who seems dedicated to keep fighting for the red jersey all the way to Madrid. Tomorrow will be another opportunity for him to showcase his raw climbing talent. There just seems to be so much variance in his form that it is hard to say how he will show up tomorrow.

Miguel Angel Lopez
There has been a lot of talk about this man’s form after dropping on the Machucos and having difficulties on earlier mur’s. It has been shown over and over that this is simply not Lopez his terrain. Just as Kruijswijk underperforms on irregular climbs, Lopez seems to have problems with the ultra-steep short Spanish mur’s. Tomorrrow he should arrive as the strongest climber in the race, so if he and his team plays their team strength succesfully he could very well claw back some time on his competitors.

The Favorites (Break):

We will just give you a list of names of riders who we think should be able to drag it to the finish line from the break (we don’t mention Latour because he seemed to be at discomfort today):

Marc Soler
Keep an eye on this man tomorrow. Destined for a win and his form seems to be on the rise! 6th in today’s stage where he managed to evade all of the crashes. Was able to grab a stage-win before, but was reeled in by his DS to his own frustrations. Tomorrow should be a huge opportunity for him to cash in on his great form, and to regain positions in GC. If only the team allows him to do so….

Mikel Nieve
12 minutes behind on GC and knows how to climb. Tomorrow is perfect for him, so we wouldn’t be suprised to see him feature in the breakaway to hunt for a Mitchelton stage-win.

Oscar Rodriguez
Lost a lot of time on GC while he didn’t seem to be on bad form. Is he planning something for tomorrow?

Sergio Higuita
Has 11 mins on Roglic so he might sneak into the breakaway. Knows that he is not strong enough if the top-5 accelerates so being in the break gives him 2 benefits: if the GC guys make it back to the main group he should have some reserves in the tank, and if they don’t he can make-up time and go for a stage-win!

Sepp Kuss
Miles behind on GC and could be used as a forward post. If the break get’s 5 mins+ he could go for personal victory. Form seems good enough to compete with the other breakaway riders.

Ion Izzagire
Same scenario as Kuss

Jesus Herrada
Knows how to win and took it easy today, will certainly be looking at tomorrow’s stage profile with great interest!

Ineos
Will we see another attempt by Geogegan-Hart or Poels? We think Geogegan-Hart will have the most chance of these two, but while they are big names their form just seems off-grid.

So, GC or break?

Given the race dynamics we think this stage will be destined for a breakaway to grab the stage-win!

The Winner:

Another long-shot pick! Oscar Rodriguez to showcase his Vuelta a Burgos tour in the large-Vuelta!