Vuelta a España 2019 – Stage 3 Preview

What a start to the Vuelta! If you had told us before the stage that Quintana would win and take the green jersey, we would have called you crazy. Whoever was crazy enough make a bet on him today has raked in a massive amount of money. Also Roche securing the red jersey can be called quite a suprise.

As we expected, today’s stage was too hard for the sprinters, with Bennett even being one of the first riders to drop from the peloton at the foot of the final climb. But we did not expect the race to be this hard and for all the favorites to put their cards on the table already. Out of the GC candidates before the race, Kruijswijk lost some time and still seems to be suffering from the crash a bit. By far the biggest losers of the day are Ineos, with both Hart and Poels losing almost 10(!) minutes.

After the carnage of today’s stage, let’s take a look at stage 3!

The Route:

Stage 3 starts in Ibi. Ciudad del Juguete and finishes in Alicane on the Costa Blanca. Alicante is one of main ports of Spain, and has developed into a popular tourist destination over the last few decades. It has hosted the finish of a Vuelta stage on five ocassions, the last time being in 1994 when the Italian Simone Biasci won the stage.

Compared too today, stage 3 is a lot easier. The first half of the stage is relatively easy and flat (for Spanish standards). After a little over 100km, the riders will face the first climb of the day, the Puerto de Biar(2.7km @ 4.%). When they reach the top, a long and gradual descent follows before they hit the second the final climb of the day, the Puerto de Tibi (6.7km @ 4.1%). There are some downhill sections along the climb so the actual ‘climbing’ percentage is around 6.5-7% with some descending inbetween. Difficult, but not impossible for most of the sprinters.

Since the final climb isn’t that difficult and it’s top is almost 40 kilometers from the finish line, it’s hard to see this become anything other then a sprint.

The final 5 kilometers are basically straigthforward on wide comfortable roads. The cross-tailwind in the final, combined with the few corners and the somewhat downhill profile will make for a tremendous pace. This sprint is one for the pure powerhouses that make it to the finish in the main group! A lead-out train helps tremendously in this type of final.

The Race:

After the carnage that was today’s stage, we expect a slightly calmer day tomorrow. There will be the standard breakaway, made up of riders from mostly smaller teams. The sprinter teams in the peloton will keep them in check, and a complete peloton will descend towards the finish line for a mass sprint.

The Weather:

Perfect racing weather tomorrow, with a temperature of around 27 degrees, clouds and a moderate breeze. The wind from the east will mean that riders that do manage to escape on the final col will face headwind for the first 15 km’s after, making it easier for the sprinters teams to chase escapees. It also means that there is an opportunity for echelons on the exposed roads (from the Puerto the Tibi up the the intermediate sprint at Bussot) due to the cross-winds, which should lead to great caution among the GC teams and will be to the likings of Fabio Jakobsen who’s team seem to have brought the entire Quickstep echelon-squad.
As mentioned before the final 5 km the riders will enjoy a cross-tailwind, which will result in a fast sprint!

The Favorites:

Sam Bennett
Fastest sprinter around at this type of terrain. Won three consecutive stages during the Binckbank Tour where he beat Groenewegen and most of the sprinters that are around here in the Vuelta. Since Bennett can cope with the climb, BORA might want to up the pace to potentially drop a few of the true’est sprinters like Jakobsen and Walscheid or to at least sap some energy out of their legs. Sam Bennett took it easy today, which will mean that he is fresh tomorrow to contest the sprint!

Fernando Gaviria
In form, will easily survive the climbs and is one of the fastest man in the race. Since it will be the second day after his crash we are hesitant to pinpoint him as the man to beat as he will probably suffer the most severe nuisance from it tomorrow. Since his whole team was affected his lead-out train might not be top-notch either. When he is at his best he is one of the few who can challenge Bennett in terms of raw power!

Fabio Jakobsen
If he survives the climb he has the pace to challenge Bennett. His teammate Hodeg showed him how its done during the Binckbank tour by beating the Irishman on stage 5. He likes pancake flat stages so that might actually worry him. If he makes it in the main group he has a really decent lead-out train at his disposal! The Dutch champion is also one of the very few riders who has beaten Bennett h2h in multiple comparable occasions.

Luka Mezgec
Showed himself to be one of the strongest climbing sprinters of the peloton today. Loves himself a fast downhill sprint as he showed in Katowice during the Tour of Poland, winning a downhill sprint at the highest pace that has recently been recorded in a professional cycling race! However, the h2h statistics show that Bennett almost always tops him in the sprint.

Max Walscheid
He has a lot of 2nd and 3rd places to his name this season but he has yet to take a big win, given the amount of competition at the Vuelta I do not see this happening tomorrow, but the stage final suits him very well. Can finish top-5

John Degenkolb
Has 10 stage wins to his name so he deserves a mention. Given his current form we do not see him winning in a stage like this.

Edward Theuns
Not sure if he will be allowed to sprint due to Degenkolb being there, but this type of stage should be more suited for him than for Degenkolb. Would really love it if TREK decides to back him, as he showed fine form during the Binckbank Tour and could challenge a nice top-5 spot!

Outsiders: Sarreau, van der Sande, Abersturi, Hagen, Venturini

The Winner:

At this kind of stage with everyone still fresh, the fastest sprinter should win: Sam Bennett! Jakobsen and Mezgec will probably battle it out for spots two and three as I expect that they will be ahead of the rest in terms of raw speed as long as Gaviria is not at its best.