Vuelta a España 2019 – Stage 14 Preview

Post Series: Vuelta a España 2019

What a ride yesterday on the ultra-steep Alto de los Machucos. We saw the Slovenians excel with Pogacar winning the stage and Roglic taking even more time into most of his direct competition! We have two more very tough tests waiting for the GC riders on Sunday and Monday, but first up: a rare chance for the sprinters?

The Route:

Stage 14 (189 km) takes us along the coastline of Asturia, the home-region of great former riders like Carlos Barredo, Jose Luis Rubiera and Sammy Sanchez, who all managed to ride themselves into top-10 GC spots in previous Vuelta’s.

Oviedo, the finish location, is notorious for its numberous cathedrals, monatries, and baroque buildings.

The city was established in 761 by Fruela I, who was the king of Asturia at that time. According to popular Spanish folklore he was hunting with his servants when he asked one of his servants ‘where should we build a city?’. The servant replied with: Ubi Edo (Spanish for ‘where and how’), which resulted in the cities current name: Oviedo.

On a final note: it is also the birth location of Fernando Alonso, the former Formula-1 world champion.

The province which we pass during todays stage, Asturia, is also known for the notorious Angliru, but luckily for the sprinters the organisers decided to stay near the coastline, which results in the more flat parcours that you can see below.

Stage 14 profile

With the exception of the Alto la Madera (a steady 8km @ 3.5% false flat) there are no categorised climbs in this stage. This should ensure that sprinters can make it into the finale. So what does the finale bring us?

On paper an easy setup for a royal sprint, a straigth line to the finish! But looking at the elevation profile in the right bottom corner, we see see a small rise in the profile in the final kilometer, so let’s examine the very final of this stage in more detail (last 2 km)

Quite some elevation! The steepest 500 meters (500 meters @ 6.5%) could be used by anyone that dares to to launch a late attack, or to set such a furious pace that the purest sprinters will lose too many positions to be able to participate in the sprint. With 250 meters to go the gradient lowers to a more manageable ~2%.

All in all a more tricky finish than the parcours suggests! Will this be enough to offer the non purest of sprinters a chance tomorrow?

The Race:

We think that a breakaway will be reeled in as sprinters like Bennett, Jakobsen, Gaviria and Mezgec didn’t drag themselves over climbs like the Machucos to leave stages like this up for grabs. We will see Bora, UAE and Quickstep do their respective work to bring their sprinters into the finale.

Since we are racing along the coast, we should double check the weather:

The Weather:

Perfect! With a gentle tailwind in the finale. No reason to be affraid of echelons.

The Favorites:

Sam Bennett
Fastest sprinter in the world. Arrives as the man to beat. Should be able to cope with this type of finale (short steep ascents) and has the team to deliver him at the front of the peloton.

Fernando Gaviria
If someone is still in the race at this point his form should be okay. We hope to see Gaviria pull-off some nice result today as the final is well within his capacities!

Fabio Jakobsen
Should be most worried about not losing positions in the explosive final. Has won a stage already, but we don’t see him reeling in another stage tomorrow.

Luka Mezgec
Perfect stage for Mezgec! A tough final with some uphill sprinting and a tailwind. If he ever wants to win a stage in this years Vuelta, tomorrow is by far his biggest chance! Will want to launch early and drag race all the way to the finish line.

Max Walscheid
See Jakobsen: will probably be too tough to challenge for victory.

John Degenkolb
Likes these type of finishes and we think Trek will back him tomorrow. Should be looking for a top-5 spot. Does he have the pace to challenge for the win? We don’t think so.

Jon Aberasturi
Will be looking for another great pro-conti result and this stage suits him well. Has the luxury of being on the same team as Aranburu, which they could exploit. Could see him doing fairly well here!

Higuita/Valverde/Aranburu/Gilbert (Late attack scenario)
These type of riders will be looking for a sneaky late-attack in the steep section in the finale. If they manage to get a gap, it will be hard for a team like DQS to chase as that will most likely result in dropping their own sprinter.

Outsiders: Sarreau, van der Sande, Abersturi, Hagen, Venturini, Bauhaus