Vuelta a España 2019 – Stage 18 Preview

What a stage today! We expected some echelons, but we didn’t expect them to form right from the very first kilometer. Who other than Deceuninck-Quickstep had their entire team drilling in the front to create the first echelon. The most suprising name in the first group was Quintana, which caused Jumbo-Visma to spend almost an entire day chasing the first group.

In the end, Bennett was in only Bora rider in the first echelon and launched his sprint way too early. It was Gilbert who could overtake him and finish off the work for Quickstep to give them a well deserved victory. All things considered, the damage for Jumbo-Visma wasn’t that bad. Quintana is back in GC-contention, but it remains to be seen how he will hold in the upcoming mountains. Other than that, Roglic is still firmly in red.

Today has showed us that the battle isn’t over yet, so let’s take a look at tomorrow!

The Route:

Stage 18 starts in Comunidad de Madrid. Colmenar Viejo and finishes in Becerril de la Sierra. The stage goes right across the Sierra de Guadarrama mountain range that seperates the two big plateau’s in Spain. This means that, just like today, almost the entire stage will be at least 900 meters above sea level.

The true die-hard cycling fans might recognize the profile above, because it is almost a carbon-copy of stage 20 of the 2015 edition of the Vuelta. That stage would end up in the history books as the day Aru and Astana destroyed the hopes of Tom Dumoulin to win the red jersey.

The stage starts with about 20 kilometers of flat terrain before the first climb of the day begins, the Puerto de Navacerrada(11.8km at 6.3%). The top of this climb is followed by a small plateau, before a long descent brings us to the second climb of the day: the Puerto de la Morcuera(13.2km at 5%). The descent of this climb is very short steep, so the riders will reach massive speeds and will have to be careful.

Now here is where it gets interesting. Once the peloton has descended the second climb, they will do a small local loop and then turn back to race across the same climbs again, but this time from the other side!

This means the third climb of the day is the Puerto de la Morcuera again, but this time from the steeper side(10.4 km at 6.7%).

As you can see, the final 5 kilometers of this climb are the hardest. If someone wants to launch an early attack, this is probably where they have to do it. Following the second climbing of the Puerto de la Morcuera, the peloton heads down to the final climb of the day, the Puerto de Cotos(13.9km at 4.8%).

The final climb is both the longest and easiest of them all. The gradients won’t scare anyone, but the legs will already be very tired when they hit the bottom so it can still do a lot of damage. The top of the Cotos is once again followed by a short plateau, before a quick descent takes us close to the finish line.

The final kilometers are going significantly uphill, so if there still a group together at this point, differences can still be made here.

The Race:

This is the second to last mountain stage of the race, so if anyone still wants to challenge Roglic for the GC, they will have to try something tomorrow. Jumbo-Visma’s domestiques went all-out today trying to minimize the gaps in the echelons, which might cause them to drop early today. If Movistar and Astana are going all out from the start, there is a change that Roglic might get isolated early. A total repeat of the 2015 scenario seems kinda unlikely to us because we think Roglic is simply too strong and he will have no trouble in following the dangerous attacks from the other GC contenders.

Even though we think it is unlikely, it is also possible we might see a breakaway win. The riders from Astana, Movistar and Jumbo-Visma might simply be too tired to chase the breakaway all day. We think the way that tomorrow’s stage will play out will completely depend on how much energy the riders from the main GC teams still have left in the tank.

The Weather:

The weather will be a lot nicer to the riders tomorrow. It will be perfect racing weather with no rain and an average temperature of around 21 degrees throughout the stage.

The Favorites:

Alejandro Valverde/Nairo Quintana
We have no doubt that Valverde and Movistar will try something tomorrow. Valverde has the strongest sprint, so he can finish it of from a reduced favorites group. Quintana is also completely back in contention for the podium after today’s echelon stage, which provides Movistar with another big tactical advantage. But to be honest, we are skeptical that he will be able to follow the best and think that will lose quite a bit of time tomorrow

Tadej Pogacar
Still very strong going into the third week of the Vuelta. His team is kinda weak, and he might prefer to defend his podium place instead of risking it with an all-or-nothing attack. Nonetheless, he has proven to be one of the favorites in every mountain stage

Miguel Angel Lopez
In 2015, it was Astana that lit up the race in this stage by sending many riders up front and making the race hard very early on. They have the time to try the same tactic tomorrow, and the climbs should suit Lopez very well.

Primoz Roglic
His team had to do a massive effort today, but it seemed like Roglic himself did not waste that much energy today. He is one of the best descenders of the peloton so the final suits him, but we think he will take it safe in the final descent and not try to go solo.

Breakaway candidates: Hart, Latour, Edet, Nieve, Pernsteiner

The Winner:

We expect Astana to blow up the race tomorrow like they did here in 2015. Their leader Miguel Angel Lopez will win!