Vuelta a España 2019 – Stage 7 Preview

For one moment we were affraid that today would be a GC day given the fierce pace on the first two climbs, but eventually a group of 11 man broke free and managed to finish in front of the peloton. It were Teuns and Herrada who proved to be the strongest of these, with Teuns grinding it out for his red jersey and Herrada following his wheel to easily grab the stage win, landing us a nice bet!

Back in the GC fight Pogacar took a few seconds over the others which seemed to be either a display of overconfidence or a display of supreme form. Either way, the biggest loss of the day was the withdrawal of Uran and some other top-20 riders (De la parte, Roche, Carthy) from the race. Formolo and Higuita were also among the casualties, but for now seem to be able to at least continue the race.

With Dylan Teuns in red, his team Bahrein Merida -who don’t have a real GC contester and came here for stagewins- will give everything they can to keep Teuns in the jersey as long as possible.

Will they be able to do so? Let’s examine the route that is in store for the riders tomorrow!

The Route:

Stage 7 (183.2 km) will take us from Onda to the notorious Mas de La Costa. A hilly day with a finish at a real mur!

After a flat first third of the race, the riders will face two cat 3 and a cat 2 climb before the intermediate sprint. Afterwards the riders will tackle the Puerto del Salto del Caballo (cat 2), 18 kilometers of ascending and descending, and finally the climb on which fireworks is expect: the Mas de La Costa.

Since tomorrow’s stage will be centered around the Mas de la Costa, let’s check out how tough it actually is.

It aint tough, its really tough. With a maximum gradient of 25% and a constantly changing gradient it is only for the purest of climbers. It will be an extremely tough climb for riders who like to settle into a rhytm and grind it out. Since the gradients don’t fall below 10% after the first kilometer of the climb, expect the remaining of the climb to be a man versus man drag-race to the top.

The Mas de La Costa was tackled once before in the Vuelta, during the 2016 edition that was won by Nairo Quintana, you can find the results of that stage here.
Tldr: things that strike from that stage is that a breakaway made it to the finish line, and that Quintana and Chaves did really well (which is not strange considering that they are colombian mountains goats and that they both made the podium that year (Quintana -1, Chaves – 3)).

Dedicated Vuelta fans will also recall last year’s stage to La Camperona, a comparable stage in which the pro-continental rider Oscar Rodriguez managed to get his biggest career victory, winning the stage by dropping decent climbers Majka and Teuns on La Camperona!

The final 4km, on which action is bound to happen, has some hairpins and cornerings inside. This makes it easier for an attacker to get ‘out-of-sight’, but given the steepness of the gradients we don’t expect tactical racing, but rather an all-out 4 kilometer uphill drag-race.

The Weather:

Tomorrow will be hot. Temperatures of 30 degrees with a light breeze from the south-east. Given that our final climb only takes us to 985 meters above sea level, the heat will have a significant influence on the race. Keep a special eye on Nairo Quintana who -against all logic- tends to perform worse in extreme heat.

The Race:

Given the flat opening of the stage it will be harder for the real true climbers to join the break, which is a crucial factor as the finale actually suits the truest of climbers. They will need perfect timing or a strong baroudeur team-mate to bridge the gap to make it into tomorrow’s break.

Still, there are plenty of teams who have the riders to do so, and with Bahrein in red which is not the strongest of teams, they will only burn their resources if a real threat for Teuns his jersey is in the breakaway. I think they will be very keen to let a breakaway fight it out for the stage victory and set a steady pace untill the foot of the climb so Teuns arrives fresh, which will give him the biggest chances to hold on to his jersey.

Therefore, we deviate from everyone else who seems to expect an all-out GC day, we think it is another day for the breakaway! However, we need to be very thoughtful on who we pick, as tomorrow will have totally different race dynamics than today.

We managed to identify today’s winner (Jesus Herrada). So with that said, let’s play another round of the break-away lottery (thumbs up).

The Favorites:

Sep Kuss
Showing amazing form so far on the climbs, and tomorrow’s final really suits him. Could be sent into the break as a forward rider for Roglic, but if the break makes it to the final climb he might very well be allowed freedom to chase personal glory. Is 26 minutes down on GC and lost almost 13 minutes today on a stage where he shouldn’t. Could be a perfect day for him and Jumbo Visma to try something!

Oscar Rodriguez
Another obvious mention. Has been really quiet so far, but won a very comparable stage last year to the Mas de la Costa. Did amazing in the Vuelta a Burgos, so will be eye-ing this stage for another landmark victory. Is only 4:37 behind on GC, so will he be given the freedom by Bahrein and the other teams? Very questionable…

Daniel Felipe Martínez
Strong ride today, and with Uran and Carthy out and Higuita hurt, EF should be chasing stages. Martinez is their best option and is 4:49 down on GC. Is a strong time-trialist so will be one of the few climbers who shouldn’t worry too much about getting into the breakaway on the flat. His form is somewhat questionable, but an in-form Martinez should challenge for the win here! Same as with Rodriguez, will they allow him to go?

Felix Großschartner 
We think it is too steep for the BORA rider, but as our blog favorite we still like to give him a mention. Managed to win in the tour of turkey on a 11km 9% climb, but we have no idea how he will do in this kind of terrain.

Tao Geogegan-Hart
Repeat: He is either sick or he has something up on his sleeve! Lost another 12 minutes today which does not line up with the results he produced prior to the Vuelta. This climb is not perfect to him, but in a breakaway he should be one of the stronger man here.

Wout Poels
Really impressive action on the front today. Was caught by the peloton so he decided to lose another 12 minutes today. We think he might give it another go tomorrow as the finale really suits his qualities. Can do well both from the peloton and from the break!

Jakob Fuglsang
This is his kind of terrain, and he promised to go on some stage-hunting pre-vuelta! This is his chance! Looks solid so far and if he is featured in which-ever breakaway he is a favorite to win! Could also be used as a forward post for Lopez.

Marc Soler
Same scenario as Kuss.

Niklas Eg
Trek’s strongest climbing option. A really young talent from who we are curious how he would do in such a kind of finale. A wildcard for tomorrow!

James Knox
Same as Niklas Eg, but Quickstep’s option.

Outsiders: Almost any other decent climber who is >10 minutes behind on GC.

The Winner:

A long-shot call, Sep Kuss who seems to be on-form just in time to win from the break!