Vuelta a España 2019 – Stage 10 Preview

The Queen stage certainly did not disappoint, what a race! He has been riding amazing all Vuelta, but yesterday we saw the definitive confirmation that Tadej Pogacar is destined for greatness. Next to his amazing win, the gravel section caused chaos, which we were not even able to see due to the television broadcast failing because of the apocalyptic weather. Roglic got taken down by a motorbike but recovered very well, which shows he is in absolute top form. On the other hand Lopez was on the attack from early on, but crashed after touching Higuita’s wheel and lost some valuable time on his competitors. Finally, the Quintana vs Valverde saga keeps on giving with a Soler clearly not willing to help Quintana.

After a well-deserved rest day, let’s take a look at one of the deciding stages of this years Vuelta a España!

The Route:

Stage 10 is a long and grueling time-trial over 36.2km. It’s the kind of time-trial we haven’t really seen anymore in the Tour de France in the last few years, due to the relative lack of time-trialing skills of the French GC riders. Luckily, the Vuelta has us covered!

The stage starts in Pau in France, a city that is mostly famous for hosting the start and/or finish of a bazillion Tour de France stages. The finish is close by on the other side of the river in Jurançon. The route is long and windy, which will favor the true specialists.

If we take a look at the profile above, one might think this is a pretty easy, flat TT without too much obstacles. But, since this is the Vuelta we are talking about, the profile is pretty deceiving. The riders will have to tackle two short, but steep climbs on the route, that are for some reason not shown on the official stage profile.

Right after the start, the riders will face the Côte de Beauvallon, a 2.1km climb with a average gradient of 7.4%

Anyone that has not taken a closer look at the stage will therefore be in for a nasty suprise. Significant gaps can already be created in just the first 3 kilometers of the stage! We think that all riders will probably start on a normal TT-bike and that there will be no bike-swaps during the TT. This presents an added difficulty since climbing on a TT-bike is pretty different from climbing on a normal road bike.

The top of the Côte de Beauvallon is followed by 10 kilometers on rolling terrain, after which a short but tricky descent leads us to the second uncategorized climb of the day: the Côte de l’Eglise.

This one is a little easier than the Côte de Beauvallon, but will still be a massive change of pace for the riders, going from 50km/h to hitting gradients of over 7%. Once the Côte de l’Eglise is behind them, a short descent is followed by roughly 10 truly flat kilometers to the finish line. Here, the true powerhouses, such as Roglic, can increase their time-gaps.
So, all in all, this TT is a lot harder than it looks, and some riders that still had a little hope left for the GC might lose it after tomorrow!

The Weather:

It looks like it is going to be dry and sunny all day, with almost no wind. This means the weather will luckily not have any impact on the stage, and it will be all down to the riders themselves!

The Race:

It’s a time-trial! Every man for himself today, as it will be a make-or-break stage for many riders.

The Favorites:

Primoz Roglic
Without a doubt the clear favorite for tomorrow. It’s almost a question by how much he will win, not if he will win. This is the stage that he probably has been targeting from the very start, and he will want to win as much time as possible on his opponents so that he can ride conservatively in the second half of the Vuelta.

Tadej Pogacar
We have to name him after yesterday’s amazing display. His form is obviously great, but it will be interesting to see how well he has recovered from stage 9. He has not ridden that many time trials yet in the World Tour, but he is the Slovenian national time trial champion(although Roglic did not participate). His other TT results this year are a 5th place in Algarve and a 18th place in Basque County, so he is definitely a force to be reckoned with.

Ion Izagirre
He was not that strong in the first week of the Vuelta, but in the last 2 mountain stages he turned out to be the strongest domestique for Lopez. He finds a course that suits him perfectly, but it remains to be seen if he will be allowed to go all-out or if they want him to save energy for the upcoming stages.

Thomas de Gendt
He might finish in the top 5, or he might not even finish in the top 100. Who knows? De Gendt is an enigma and one of the weirdest riders in the World Tour. If he has a good day, he can compete with the best, which he showed in the Tour de France by finishing third in the time trial in Pau(!). Let’s see which de Gendt will turn up tomorrow.

Daniel Felipe Martínez 
Martinez is far and away the best Colombian time-trialist, and now that is captain is out of the race, he has even more reasons to show himself. His form does not seem te be that great, but we think he will still be up there with the best.

Tony Martin
Normally, Martin should always listed as one of the favorites for a time trial. However, we don’t really think he has a chance to win tomorrow. The course does not suit him with the 2 small but steep climbs. In addition, he was involved in the massive crash a couple of days ago and has pretty significant grazes, which can’t be too comfortable on a TT bike.

Outsiders: Bevin, Valverde, Oliveira, Kelderman, Ludvigsson

The Winner:

Absolutely no doubt about it, Primoz Roglic will win the time-trial.