Vuelta a España 2019 – Stage 12 Preview

We got a Basque winner in the Basque Country today, it just wasn’t the one we were expecting. Our predicted winner Aranburu was in the breakaway of the day and seemed to be the favorite for the win, but he wasted his energy with an attack on the Col de Ispéguy. A bit of a weird move, since he was probably the fastest rider in the breakaway and could have just stayed in the group.

Instead, Mikel Iturria won the stage with a perfectly timed attack after a nail-biting final in which the time gaps where very small. A Basque rider from a small Basque team winning in Basque Country, we could not ask for more!

In the GC, nothing changed as the peloton had an easy day and coasted to the finish line. Tomorrow’s stage won’t be so easy, and will provide a first opportunity to attack and gain time on Roglic.

The Route:

A true Basque stage today. The start is in Circuito de Navarra, and the peloton heads north west towards the finish in Bilbao. As the Basque are known to be completely cycling crazy, there will no doubt be as massive amount of fans cheering on the side of the road.

The first 120 kilometers of the stage are actually pretty easy. The only obstacle is the Alto de Azázata (5 km @ 4%) after roughly 37 kilometers, but that won’t be any trouble for the riders and just serve as a small warm-up for the horror that awaits them later on in the stage. After the top of the Azázeta, it is another 100 kilometers on flat roads, including a descent to (almost) sea level, before the spectacle truly starts.

In the last 40 kilomters, the riders will have to tackle three very steep Mur’s in quick succesion. First up is the Alto de Urrutzimendi, 2,5 km at 9.2%, but as you can see in the profile it is the last 1.5 kilometers that are especially gruesome. After a very short and technical descent, the second Mur arrives. At 4.1km @ 7.4%, the Alto el Vivero isn’t that hard compared to the other two, but the riders legs will probably be screaming for help after the Urrutzimendi. But that is not all, because the organisers have saved the best for last.

If the first two Mur’s weren’t enough yet, the third one is the hardest of them all. The Alto de Arraiz is 2.5 kilometers long with an average gradient of 11%. After reaching the top of the Arraiz, it is only a little under 8 kilometers downhill to the finish line in a fast, but quite tricky, descent.

The Race:

This one has got to be for the GC riders. That had a semi-rest day today, so they should be all charged up for tomorrow to take a first shot at Roglic. We think Astana, Movistar and UAE will keep the break under control and reel them back in before the bottom of the first Mur. They will want to wage war and ride a very hard and fast pace on the first two Mur’s to wear out Roglic. The bottom of the final Mur is the ideal place for an all-out attack, and if someone manages to reach the top alone, can can increase their lead in the descent.

The Weather:

For Spanish terms, it’s going to be pretty cold tomorrow in Bilbao. There is also a possibility of rain throughout the day. Let’s hope it will be dry when the riders hit the final climbs, or we might be in for some crashes in the fast descents.

The Favorites:

Sergio Higuita
He’s the only one in this list who isn’t in contention for the GC anymore, and that might prove to be his biggest advantage. He is very good at steep gradients, and is also a skilled descender. If he attacks on one of the final climbs, the other’s might not feel the need to chase him down.

Primoz Roglic
Steep climbs followed by a fast and tricky descent, we think it sounds tailor-made for Roglic. He is one of the best descenders in the peloton, and in his current form there seems to be no-one that is able to drop him on the climbs. Even though tomorrow’s climbs are a lot shorter, the final reminds us a little bit of stage 19 of last year’s Tour de France, in which Roglic won after gaining a gap on all the other GC riders in the final descent.

Alejandro Valverde
Probably the biggest specialist in these type of Mur’s in the current peloton. His form has been great all Vuelta, and this seems like a perfect stage for him to win some time on Roglic. He will need to do something here, as it will be harder to drop him on the longer climbs in the following stages.

Tadej Pogacar
Let’s see if he can keep suprising us! We still expect him to falter a little bit in the second part of the Vuelta due to his age and inexperience. According to himself he still feels great and is not tired yet, which means he is a force to be reckoned with in every mountain stage.

Nairo Quintana
If Valverde doesn’t attack, maybe Quintana will. He was the biggest loser in the time-trial, so if he wan’t to make a claim on the overall victory, he will need to attack in wherever he can.

Outsiders: Lopez, Gilbert, Hart, Teuns, Latour, Majka

The Winner:

EF Education First are in desperate need for some good results after all the bad luck this Vuelta. We believe Sergio Higuita will will win and save their race tomorrow!