Vuelta a España 2019 – Stage 9 Preview

Today we saw the GC men taking it easy. It was the fast man Arndt who managed to outsprint a seemingly strong Aranburu -who might have wasted just a little too much energy in the final by chasing down every move-. A huge positive for team Sunweb!

Next up tomorrow, the long awaited Queen-stage of this years Vuelta!

The Route:

Stage 9 is an ultra-short 94.4 km ‘racing from the gun’ stage that takes us from La Vella to Cortals D’Encamp.

With the recent popularity of these type of stages in grand tours, one would think that the organisers of the Vuelta just follow the trend, this is not the case. They were actually among the first to host a racing-from-the-gun stage back in 2015 in Stage 11 of the Vuelta. Back then Movistar manager Eusebio Unzué called it one of the toughest grand-tour stages ever. Mountain goat Mikel Landa managed to claim victory ahead of a lot of other strong GC contesters. Tomorrow is bound to be a crucial stage for GC!

The race commences with the Coll d’Ordino, which is probably the easiest of the obstacles with 8.9km @ 5% in the route-book. According to the veloviewer profile the climb is a little bit steeper than that.

After a descent, the Coll de Gallina (12.2 kilometers at 8.3%) shows up. A hors categorie climb where only the strongest of climbers will be able to keep up. This climb will be loved by the purest of climbers like Miguel Angel Lopez, because of the constant gradient shifts which prevents climbers who like to ride climbs at a steady high pace to settle into a comfortable tempo. Unfortunately, the climb might be too far from the finish line to truely crack some of the strongest of the GC contenders, but we hope for some typical Movistar/Astana far-out attacks as it would make the stage even more interesting! Given the current standing in GC and the strong impression that Roglic is making, we wouldn’t be suprised to see one of the trio (Valverde, Quintana, Lopez) launching a far-out attack. Would also be typically Vuelta-style to see GC contenders that are further out launching attacks left and right.

Regardless of GC all-out attacks on this climb yes/no, the furious pace that will be set by Astana and/or Movistar will ensure that most of the GC riders will be isolated after this climb or will only have one helper left.

We expect that the ‘real’ GC battle will ignite during the ascent of one of the final 3 climbs that are basically tackled consecutively. First up is the Alto de la Commala (4.2 km @ 8.6%). What follows is a short descent which leads us to the sub-final climb of this stage the Alto de Engolasters (4.8km @ 8.1). 

From the top of the Engolasters to the base of the final climb we have ourselves a gravel section of four kilometers! Which means no time for recovery and a lot of stress amongst GC riders! With a high likelihood that most of the GC riders will be isolated at this point of the stage, a mechanical at this point of the race will be disastrous!

The one who is first to arrive on top of the final climb (the Cortals d’Encamp) will be able to call himself a GT stage winner!

As you can see on the profile the venom of the final climb is in its first kilometers. The riders that are left at this point who feel like they still have something in the tank the others don’t have, will have to launch their attacks at the very beginning of this climb if they want to gain significant time on their rivals.
It is very cliche to say, but a lot of riders will lose their Vuelta GC ambitions tomorrow!

The Weather:

There will be rain tomorrow and temperatures will be low. This will be favorable for riders who like these type of conditions, but will also bring risks since the stage contains a lot of difficult descending!

The Race:

If you are not Roglic and are serious about winning this race, tomorrow should be the day to show your cards. We expect fireworks and we expect it earlier than might be usual in grand tour mountain stages. No final 2k attacking, but forward posts and long-range attacks! Lopez and the Movistar’s are in great form and will be looking forward to put the hammer down on Roglic. We’ll have to see how this turns out, but we expect a GC battle in which the strongest rider will win the stage.

With that said, let’s head over to the favorites!

The Favorites:

Miguel Angel Lopez
One of the strongest riders in the race. Has the team to facilitate long-range attacks and won’t be affraid to challenge the other riders man-to-man. This is his time to attack Roglic, and given his attitude we expect him to do so.

Nairo Quintana
The other pure Colombian climber. Tends to do very well in these types of stages and loves cold, rainy weather. We have said it before, but against all odds Nairo excels in these conditions. Movistar have Valverde and Quintana within half a minute of the red jersey, which they could exploit to crack the others. A logical move would be Quintana attacking from distance and Valverde following wheels. We could very well see him break loose and win the stage and the red jersey.

Alejandro Valverde
Seemed to be among the strongest four at the Mas de la Costa, but that climb was tailor-made for him. Tomorrow’s stage will be a lot more difficult because of the altitude (>2000 meters) and the countless climbing and descending. The finish of the final climb is false-flat, so if he manages to keep up he will be confident of finishing it off with his sprint.

Primoz Roglic
Climbing really strong and looking scarily hard to beat. Will be the guy to-be-sieged tomorrow, but has a really strong team to pull him trough. He will be confident of Kuss and Bennett lasting deep into the finale, and he will have Gesink at his disposal to grind it down in the first half of the stage. Will he be strong enough to match the Colombian climbing violence?

Rafael Majka
Usually does well at these kind of stages and is starting to look like ‘the best of the rest’. Always puts down a solid top 5-10 performance. Will he be able to suprise us tomorrow? We tend to answer this question with a no.

Tadej Pogacar
So young but so strong! Will love all the climbing and has the punch to finish it off if he is still featured among the favorites on the final climb. We think he will do well and we would love to see him win, but we don’t think he is ready to match the very best of climbers.

Wout Poels
In the weirdest of timelines where a non-gc wins, we think a top-notch Poels is the only rider capable of doing so. Given the neccesity of others to put time into Roglic we think the race will be too tough to give him the space that he needs to pull this off. Same goes for Daniel Martinez.

The Winner:

The Colombians to battle it out tomorrow, with Nairo Quintana taking advantage of the favorable weather conditions and the one-two he can play with Valverde in order to secure his second stage win!