Another lovely stage today. Miguel Angel Lopez igniting the race in the final, with only Roglic and Valverde initially able to follow. Majka made it back to the trio who put same large time gaps into Quintana and Pogacar, and even more into the other GC riders.
It was Higuita, who attacked earlier from far out, who managed to stay in front of the four GC riders with an all-out effort to secure his first Vuelta win and to save Education First’ Vuelta.
Tomorrow we have a ‘flat’ Vuelta stage, but will the sprinters even have a chance?
Stage 18 takes us from Avila to Toledo. Toledo is one of the oldest cities of Spain and is surrounded by a mountainous area called Sierra de Gredos. Despite the presence of this mountain range, the riders will have an easy day in the saddle for most of the day. With only one categorised climb in the beginning of a stage.
The stage has an explosive start as they climb the Alto de la Paramera which will be used by many riders with offensive intentions to try and get into the breakaway. Expect lots of riders on the rollers before the start of the stage! Since week three breakaway als generally more succesfull as the domestiques get tired, many riders will be looking to sneak into the break!
As with every Vuelta stage there are some hidden elements in the profile of the stage. This time the venom of the stage is in the final kilometer, which is barely visisble on the stage profile.
Here is where it gets interesting. In the final 700 meters of the stage the road rises with an average gradient of 8.2%.
As you can see on the picture above, the final kilometer has some nasty turns and a sharp gradient. On top of that, the final of the stage is cobbled! (see image below)
This is food for the specialists! Sprinters will have no chance if the uphill powerhouses and the GC riders give it a go here. With Lopez (and Pogacar) still being close to Quintana, who made a weak impression today, they will seize every opportunity to claw back time to keep an eye on the final podium.
The question is: will the sprinter teams work for their sprinters? If they have a decent look at the profile you would be inclined to say no. The only sprinters who I can see surviving are riders like Vdsande and Aranburu, who might just as easily join the break themselves. With Bennett out of contention for the green jersey, we think the chances of BORA wasting all their resources for a very small chance of victory are slim.
Unless the GC riders think tomorrow is their best remaining shot to put down the hammer on the others, a break should be able to make it to the finish line. The thing is, at this point of race you just never know. If a dangerous top-10 rider makes it into the break numberous teams might start riding to defend their respective GC leader’s positions.
We therefore expect a super explosive start of the day, where Jumbo Visma and the other main teams will be very keen in picking who they allow to ride and who not. If the break is favorable for them, it will probably stay away all the way to the finish.
A cold day with some minor rain and a negligable wind from the north-east! Shouldn’t influence the stage.
GC war: Alejandro Valverde/Primoz Roglic
If it get’s to an all-out GC war, Valverde or Roglic will probably win. Given his form and the nature of the final climb we expect Valverde to have an edge here.
Alex Aranburu
Still very strong going into the third week of the Vuelta! He should perhaps be one of the only ‘sprinters’ who is able to survive the climb. If he does and he manages to not missfire his effort too early he should have a chance to win.
Dion Smith
Another strong climbing sprinter. The main option for Mitchelton having lost Mezgec. Is he strong enough to battle for the win? We don’t think so.
Zdenek Stybar
This finish is perfect for him! Has shown to be in form during the echelons stage, and should get his chance for victory with Gilbert having won two stages already. Quickstep might send him into the break and have Gilbert keep his powder dry in case the peloton makes it back.
Philippe Gilbert
If they don’t play the Stybar card.
Tosh van der Sande
His specialty! Can win both from the break and from the main group. Excels at these types of finishes and has shown great form over the past races. Tomorrow will be a big chance for him to take a large victory!
Sander Armee
The other Lotto-Soudal rider who should do well in this finale! Won similar stages before and could challenge for the win if he is in-form.
Dylan Teuns
Lost a lot of time today. Probably kept his legs still once he felt that he could not keep up with the favorites. Tomorrow’s more explosive effort might suit him better!
Pierre Latour
Looked more active today and tomorrow’s finish should look appealing to him! AG2R is desperately looking for success, and Latour should be able to give it to them from the break! The start of the stage is perfect for him and his uphill kick is really strong.
Felix Großschartner
We just keep mentioning him until he wins! Another stage that he could win.
Outsiders: Guerrero, Powless, de la Cruz, de Gendt, Cavagna, Doull
Tomorrow has Quickstep written all-over it. Zdenek Stybar will see his hard work rewarded with a stage-win!
