Vuelta a España 2019 – Stage 16 Preview

Another nice day for the blog today. Almost all of our break picks were featured in the breakaway, and it was Sep Kuss who managed to snatch the stage, landing us a 251/1 bet!

Tomorrow will be another mountainous adventure. With Roglic showing so much strength today on what should be mountain goat territory, we are unsure whether anyone else still believes they can crack him tomorrow. If he manages to stay on his bike he will most likely make it to Madrid in red.

With the rest day coming up there will be countless riders looking to take the spotlight tomorrow. With that said, let’s discover what tomorrow’s stage has got in store for us!

The Route:

After having featured in four stages of the Vuelta a Asturias, Pravia has been given the honor to host a real Vuelta stage! The route features three categorized climbs and ends uphill on the Alto de la Cubilla.

The opening 50 kilometers is false-flat, after which we ascend the Puerto de San Lorenzo (10km @ 8.5%):

A tough irregular climb with steep kilometers of around 12%. If the break hasn’t been formed at this point it will definitely break free on this climb.

What follows after the first climb is a steady descent, followed by the second climb of the day: the Alto de la Cobertoria (8.3km @ 8.2%)

Less irregular than the first climb, but still a tough one! There could be some long-range attempts here since all that remains afterwards is a sharp descent and then the final climb: the Alto de la Cubilla.

A steep climb? For Vuelta terms, not really. A long climb? Definitely. A 17.8 km grind with an 6.2% average gradient. One for the time trialist climbers who like to settle themselves into a rhytm and grind it out. Too bad Kruijswijk is already back at home.

So with all this climbing violence, how will the stage play out?

The Race:

Another stage where the majority of the day goes either up- or downhill, which means another chance for the climbers who are behind to sneak into the breakaway!

The difference between yesterday and today is the longer flat run-in, but the break should still have a large chance of succeeding given that:

a) Jumbo Visma loves to let a non-dangerous breakaway escape and set a steady pace with Hofstede and Martin

b) Movistar might start riding more conservatively as Valverde will want to defend his podium (Quintana might still have a free role, but does not seem to have the form currently)

c) Lopez was not super impressive, so Astana might be keen to go for a stage-win rather than wrecking another stage hoping that Lopez suddenly rediscovers his climbing legs.

All the other teams will mainly be looking for stage wins at this point.

This makes that we think it will be another day for the break, so who will be featured in the breakaway? We think that the breakaway will be composed of a mix of second-tier GC riders who are looking to take the double (a stage win and a re-entry into the top-10) and climbers who have been saving themselves for tomorrow. This makes for some very interesting picks! But first, let’s look at the weather forecasts for tomorrow.

The Weather:

Low temperatures, sun and a tailwind on the final climb, another perfect racing day!

The Favorites:

Mikel Nieve
Was keen to get into the break today, but didn’t manage to. Far behind on GC and knows how to climb. Tomorrow is another perfect opportunity for him to go on stage-win hunting! Can sneak into the top-10 as well.

Sergio Higuita
Has 13 mins on Roglic so he might sneak into the breakaway. Being in the break gives him 2 benefits: he can make-up time, re-enter the top-10, and go for a stage-win! Even though he is young his form still seems to be sharp.

Daniel Felipe Martinez
Definately saved himself the past days as he finished with the sprinters today, 20 minutes behind Sep Kuss. EF will be looking for a stage and the final climb really suits Martinez. Will be keen to get into the break and should be challenging for the win if he manages to!

Pierre Latour
Seems to have been saving himself? It will be hard to drop him on the final climb and he has the kick to win from a reduced uphill sprint. Another big chance for him tomorrow!

Jakob Fuglsang
Ion Izzagire tried unsuccessfully today, we think tomorrow will be Jakob’s turn. He has been looking very active over the past few days, and will be very hard to beat if he manages to sneak into the breakaway!

Dylan Teuns
Lost some more time today and is now 15 minutes behind. Promised to go for more stage-victories, so we won’t be suprised to see him in the break tomorrow. Another very strong rider who knows how to win, but he would have liked the final climb to be a little more challenging in terms of gradient. Still, a man to watch.

Wout Poels/David de la Cruz
Ineos’ only options tomorrow. On good form this is perfect for them, but their form is really questionable.

In case it somehow turns out to be a GC day, we think the stage will be perfect for Tadej Pogacar.

The Winner:

A tailwind on the final climb means that it will be hard to create a significant gap. We think it will be a reduced sprint of the strongest climbers, allowing Pierre Latour to give AG2R a well-deserved stage-win!