Vuelta a España 2019 – GC Favorites Preview

At this time of the year all eyes are once again pointed towards La Vuelta. One of the 3 Grand Tours that is often characterized by a lot of climbing on steep ramps, hilly terrain and a tough life for the sprinters that dare to participate. This week we will release a number of key articles on this years Vuelta a España, ranging from parcours previews to team previews and jersey contestors.

This week we will cover the favorites for each jersey during the Vuelta, so let’s head on to our favorites!

Red Jersey (GC)

Lets start today with the most important one of all four jerseys, the red jersey. This jersey, that is award to the rider with the fastest completion time of the entire route, is historically oftenly won by some of the big names in the peloton. The list below shows the last 10 winners of the Red Jersey.

2009 – Alejandro Valverde
2010 – Vincenzo Nibali
2011 – Chris Froome
2012 – Alberto Contador
2013 – Chris Horner
2014 – Alberto Contador
2015 – Fabio Aru
2016 – Nairo Quintana
2017 – Chris Froome
2018 – Simon Yates

With the defending champion Simon Yates not participating in this years Vuelta, we are certain to see a new winner. So who are the main favorites to win the jersey this year?

AG2R La Mondiale:

Pierre Latour (*)
AG2R’s hope for the GC. His best result so far is a 13nd place in the Tour de France in 2019, and we are not so certain if he will be able to greatly improve on that this year. Has been injured for quite a while and it is questionable if he will be able to grind on with the other GC men for 3 weeks. He looked impressive in the Tour of Poland and possesses a strong kick. We therefore hope that he will be targetting stage-wins as we can certainly see him doing that!

Astana:

Miguel Angel Lopez (*****)
The main GC rider for Astana. Participated in the Giro D’Italia earlier this year so he is doing the Giro/Vuelta combo. He was victorious in the Volta a Catalunya GC, which in our opinion is fairly comparable to the first week of this years Vuelta.

He was also amazingly strong in the Giro, but only finished 7th due to a truely insane amount of bad luck. The irregular climbs with constantly shifting gradients where he can tear down his rivals with constant accelerations are among his specialty.

Often named as (one of) the best climber(s) of the peloton, this years Vuelta route must look appealing to him. He has an armada of climbing domestiques to support him and to facilitate some famous Astana-like long-range attacks.

This will probably be one of his best shots at a grand-tour victory, and with fellow South-Americans Carapaz and Bernal showing him how it’s done he’ll be motivated to complete the South-American trident. Will also be challenging for the White Jersey.

Jakob Fuglsang (**)
We do not see him challenging for the win. Had an amazing classics early season with podiums in Strade Bianche, Amstel Gold Race and the Fleche Wallone, as well as a victory in Liege-Bastogne-Liege. Won the Dauphiné, but crashed twice during the Tour. The second one of these crashes forced him to abandon the race at stage 16.

He has yet to achieve this one great GC result in a Grand Tour, but we doubt he has it in him. Given that we expect a lot from Lopez we think that he will play a role as superdomestique/back-up leader if something happens with Lopez.

Ion Izagirre (*)
Had a busy spring winning the Tour de Basque and participating in the Giro as a domestique for Lopez. Did not have much racing days after that except for the Tour of Poland where he did made an okay showing. Has a good ITT and excels at the steep Vuelta climbs, but third in line and probably a loyal superdomestique for Lopez. Somewhere along the lines between one and two stars for us, but we don’t think he will be given the freedom to chase his own GC given the focus on Lopez in this team, so he might finish similar to how he did in the Giro.

Bahrein-Merida:

We don’t see a serious GC contender in this team, as Dylan Teuns will be targetting stages and we don’t consider Padun a legitimate contender (at this point in his career).

BORA Hansgrohe:

Rafael Majka (***)
Very consistent in his GC results and a rider on which his team can always rely! Almost always able to hang on with the best, but he just seems to lack that extra class to battle for overall victories. He managed to finish 6th in the Giro D’Italia and made a reasonable showing in his hometour in Poland. With Formolo leaving and being more inconsistent in his GC results, we think Majka will be the main card for BORA. He should steadily finish top 10, but we think that there are stronger contenders participating to see him battling for the overall victory.

Davide Formolo (*)
Probably working for Majka. We hope that he will be allowed the freedom to go for stage victory as that is one of his main qualities. We can see him very succesful in such a ‘free’ kind of role, but not as a GC man. Also did not look super strong in the Tour of Poland which route was suited to his qualities.

CCC:

They don’t bring a GC option

Deceuninck-QuickStep:

Could see Knox testing himself trying to see how long he can hang on, but we hope he goes for a stage since we do not see him as a GC contender.

Dimension Data:

It’s Dimension Data…

EF Education First – Drapac:

Rigoberto Uran (***)
Solid GC option, will like the steep climbs and -unlike the other Tour de France GC contestors- his form seemed to start peaking only in the final week. Uran himself, who claimed that he might have started the Tour de France a little undercooked, has had few racing days this year apart from the Tour de France and the Tour of California and should arrive relately fresh. He knows how to ride an ITT, his team will certaintly put down a strong TTT and it is hard to drop him in the mountains. Could challenge for a podium spot.

Tejay van Garderen (*)
As a Tejay van Garderen fan by heart I am very sad to award him only one star. After he won the youth jersey in the Tour de France I thought he would be the USA’s future of Grand Tour cycling, but nothing is less true. His random total off-days, illnesses and weird chute’s are starting to become his trademark rather than his climbing and time-trialling skills. Even thought he is supposedly shadow leader and should still be fresh after dropping out from the Tour, we do not expect a lot of him.

Daniel Martinez (**)
The pan-american and national ITT champion arrives with a Paris-Nice mountain finish under his belt, where he beat climbers like Lopez, Quintana, Yates and Bernal to the finish line on a tough climb. He had to drop from the Tour of Utah due to ilness, which makes his form questionable. According to EF he is riding in support of others, but if he happens to stay around on the climbs until the ITT he might just happen to be the best ranked EF rider after the ITT. Still, we’re affraid -at the age of 23- that it is somewhat too early in Martinez his career to challenge for the win here. With his best result being a 36th place in the Tour de France in 2018, this will be a perfect opportunity to show his team that he is capable of riding consistent for three weeks.

Sergio Higuita (**)
Another insane Colombian talent! Was able to climb with the best both in the Tour of California as well as the Tour of Poland, and his height/weight are perfect for the steep Vuelta mur’s! EF has a number of options with him: they could let him work for Uran on the true GC days, and still allow him the freedom to go for stages. Or… they could let him hang on with the bunch to see where it ends. Our opinion: it is his first grand tour and despite his insane climbing talent he should focus on stuff like performing and recovering for three weeks straigth, as well as learning how to navigate through the dynamics of a grand tour peloton. The bookies list him at 41/1 for the overall victory, but we are hoping for the first scenario (domestique + freedom for stages). With his climbing talent that’d almost assure him of a stage-win somewhere along the line!

Hugh Carthy (**)
Made one of the more impressive solo’s that we have seen for a long time during the Tour de Suisse, where he basically solo’d for the entire stage only to stay a minute ahead of competitors like Bernal at the finish line. Already did the Giro and managed to obtain a respectable 11th place there. EF says that he is working as a domestique, but he could be an outside shot for a top-10 spot here. One of those riders who will be really interesting to follow this Vuelta as we think he might have some tricks up his sleeve, more about that later in this preview!

Groupama – FDJ:

No GC

Ineos (ex-Sky):

Wout Poels: (**):
We’re going to stick our necks out and here and say that Wout Poels will not win the Vuelta. He managed to get a 6th place here in 2017, but in our opinion he is over the hill and always seems to crack somewhere along the line when he is put in charge. Arrives with a rather weak squad for Ineos terms and did not truely impress during the Tour.

Tao Geoghegan Hart (**):
A very interesting guy to follow! Somewhat unlucky in the Giro, but he made strong showings in the Tour of the Alps and the Tour of Poland. Will probably be the main card for Ineos and has a strong time-trial on a good day which could give him an edge over other climbers. He can cope with the long steep climbs, but how will he perform on the Spanish mur’s? We will find out soon! Do we expect him somewhere in the top-15? Yes. Do we expect him to win? No

On a final note: Kenny Elissonde for a suprise showing? No
Update: Kenny Elissonde has last-minute been replaced by David de la Cruz, from who we do not expect a top-20 finish this year.

Jumbo – Visma:

Primoz Roglic (*****):
The bookies favorite at less than 3/1! He was amazingly strong in the Giro only to crack in the final week. Still with 2 stage victories and a podium spot his Giro was very impressive. Has had few other race-days this year, but managed to win in all the other World Tour stage-races in which he participated (UAE tour, Tirreno-Adriatico, Tour of Romandie). Did not race after the Giro so he should be fresh as one can be! Given his punching skills, the short steep climbs will suit him perfectly. Also, considering the armada that Jumbo Visma brings along to support him, and the relatively easy third week, we think he might just make it to the finish line in pole position this time!

Steven Kruijswijk (***):
The guy who never cracks, but also never wins. For someone who is taken serious as a grand-tour contender it is suprising to see that his most impressive win to this point is a GC win in the Arctic Race of Norway in 2014. Not that good for a 32 year old GC contestor. He already did the Tour, but last year showed that he is one of those riders who is able to produce both a strong Tour (5th GC in 2018) and a strong Vuelta (4th GC in 2018). According to us, he will once again ride a steady top-10, but will not challenge for either the podium or the win.

Katusha Alpecin:

No GC

Lotto Soudal:

Stage hunters

Mitchelton-Scott:

Esteban Chaves (***)
Maybe a bit biased, because he is one of my very favorite riders, but the parcours is perfect for the tiny Colombian pocket-climber! He produced a really impressive stage-win in the Giro D’Italia after a very tough period for him personally and physically. I am really happy that Scott trusts him with a role as their GC leader (even though it is probably born out of need), and sends a fairly decent team with him for support. He will definately lose time in the ITT and will therefore need to ride ultra-aggressive in the first and second week. Fortunately he excels in such a kind of role, and we can see him being one of the most entertaining riders this Vuelta if his physical state allows him to show his best on the climbs! An on-fire Chaves is definately one-to-watch for the overall victory, but since he has not shown consistency for a long time, and his form hasn’t truely flipped yet, we don’t think he deserves a four star rating.

Movistar:

Alejandro Valverde (****)
Former Vuelta winner who -like Uran- seemingly started peaking at the end of the Tour de France. Intentionally lost time early in the Tour only to still end up 9th in GC. He was the strongest of the GC contenders in the ultra-short climbing stage (stage 20), and made a really strong showing the day before on the Col d’Iseran. He will be thrilled to see the first week’s route as the Catalunya-esque route seems almost tailor-made to the Spanish veteran! He arrives with an armada of strong climbers, but Movistar and teamwork have not shown to be the very best combination so far this year.
He is wearing bib number one as Simon Yates is not defending his title. Will he also be wearing this bib next year? It would be a huge upset at the age of 40, but he just might! It is worth noticing that his team manager stated that they hope that he will focus on stages, but we all know Alejandro won’t play play the second violin in his own country! Also, with Carapaz not being there due to injury, Quintana will be his main rival in the competition for Movistar leadership. Since the two do not have a perfect history of cooperation, we think this will make it even more likely that Valverde will go all-out for a GC podium.

Richard Carapaz (****)

Update (22/08 11:30): According to this tweet Carapaz appearance in the Vuelta is in doubt after a crash during a criterium. We will be updating our GC preview article accordingly as more info is released.

Update (22/08 18:30): Carapaz has officially dropped out of the Vuelta and will be replaced by Rojas. We have updated the GC preview accordingly for the other team Movistar riders.

We are deviating from the bookmakers here, who put Carapaz on an equal level with Miguel Angel Lopez, but we do not think that he deserves a five-star rating. He won the Giro by taking a lead over Roglic and Nibali -who were only looking at each other- and to everyone’s suprise defending it all the way to Verona. He was dropped by Sosa and Oscar Rodriguez in the Vuelta a Burgos last week, which makes us somewhat question his form. Given that it is mentally very challenging to prepare yourself with the same amount of dedication after winning a Grand Tour earlier in the season, we suspect that Carapaz will not be showing up in his Giro form. Still, even a Carapaz at 90% will be one-to-watch, and he might manage to peak his form just in time! Just like Valverde he is amongst a strong squad, but he will have to make his mark early in the race to claim his role as the main leader. The parcours allows him to do so, but his fellow South-American comrad will probably be looking to make the same move, which leads us to the final third of the famous Tridente!

Nairo Quintana (***):
Really weird showing in the Tour as every cyclist follower probably recalls. Still, won during a one-stage all-out effort and managed to post the highest wattages of all riders there. An 8th place in GC for a rider who totally cracked and seemed undercooked early-on is still respectable, but Quintana is capable of more. He is leaving Movistar after this year which makes his loyalty to the team even more questionable. A one-man-army Quintana who is in-form should still always be challenging for a top-5 spot. Just like Chaves, don’t ever write this type of climbers off, because they might not have the form but they are among the few select riders who have the potential to win.

Marc Soler (* -> **):
The one Movistar GC option who seems to have a manageable ego and does not mind working for others. We therefore think that he will submerge given the climbing-violence that Movistar brings along with the one and only Tridente. We can only hope that last-years Paris-Nice winner will be allowed more freedom in the future, because we think -still only aged 25- he is capable of producing some really impressive results!
Update (22/08 18:30): With Carapaz dropping out of the Vuelta selection due to injury, we think there will be a much larger opportunity for Soler to show the Soler who won Paris-Nice last year. Given that the Spanish rider will be given more freedom now als Movistar will want to maintain their Tridente, we have upgraded Marc Soler from one star to two stars. We do not see Soler winning, but we do see him securing a very solid top-15 spot, which would be his best result in a Grand Tour so far. Really interesting rider to follow over the next couple of weeks!

Sunweb:

Wilco Kelderman (*)
The Dutch Tejay van Garderen. Does he have the talent? Yes. Does he perform? No. Unforunately we don’t really expect anything from the Dutch rider who was been overloaded with missfortune recently.

Trek-Segafredo:

They brought Niklas Eg who will be fun to follow, but will not be a GC threat.

UAE Team Emirates:

Fabio Aru (**):
14th place in the Tour de France where the former Vuelta winner tried to ride himself back into form. During the Tour he could not follow the best, and his form seemed to be getting worse during the final week. Afflicted by injuries, we think he will be riding the Vuelta with the same motive – regaining form. Why does he still get two stars? Because we do know what he is capable off.

Tadej Pogacar (***)
Such an impressive rider! Probably one of the guys who will be challenging Bernal for the next decade if his progression continues! He won the Volta ao Algarve, only to subsequently place 6th in the Tour de Basque and to win the prestigious Tour of California. Has an acceptable time-trial and looked very strong in his most recent race (Tour of Slovenia – 4th place GC). One of those young riders who, just like Bernal, is able to produce consistent results for multiple tough stages. Will love all the climbing work and will arrive really fresh at the start!
Apart from this you can basically apply the Higuita-logic to this rider. He can try to ride a good result in the shadow of Aru, or he could try to hunt down stages. He has the punch and the climbing skills to do so! Given that UAE knows that they have landed themselves one of the most promising youngsters in the peloton, they will be very, very carefull not to overload him. It would not be the first time UAE pulls a talented rider out after two weeks, but in the not so unlikely scenario that Pogacar is among the top of the ranks after the Alto Los Machucos, will they take the risk? We’re inclined to answer yes to that question. For us he is ranked somewhere between the two and three stars GC riders so we decided to give him the benefit of the doubt given his consistency at his age.

The Wildcard Teams:

Euskadi Basque Country – Murias: Oscar Rodriguez (*)
Deserves a mention because he finished on the podium ahead of Carapaz and behind Sosa during the recent Vuelta a Burgos. Got a stage win in the Vuelta last year and we hope that he will focus on the same this year, because we do not see him lay down a significant GC result (yet). Still, a fun rider to watch over the coming weeks!

Tactics

There are two main teams that have the firepower to control the race: Jumbo Visma and Astana. EF and Movistar also bring a strong squad, but we do not see them controlling the race for three weeks. This will lead to an interesting scenario:

As Jumbo Visma and Astana will only ride to preserve the GC positions of Lopez and Roglic the battle for the other top-10 spots should be wide open if large gaps are made in the first half of the Vuelta. This should create opportunities for non-favorites to claim high positions on the GC ranking as long as they don’t form a real threat to Jumbo Visma or Astana’s GC.

Teams that have multiple irons in the fire in terms of GC could profit from this as they can send waves of 2nd-tier GC riders into breakaways in the 2nd half of the Vuelta just to see what happens. A lot of time can be made-up this way, which could lead to some very suprising top-10 names. Personally, we think the team-depth of teams like Education First (in terms of GC potential) might give them a big, big edge during this race. It will be impossible to chase down every move for three weeks, and as Uran showed during stage 19 of the Tour the France EF does not mind some risky coup attempt. We are sticking our necks out here as it quite a bold prediction, but we might just see an offensive rider like Hugh Carthy secure himself a top-8 spot this way if he is allowed the freedom.

Conclusion:

Combining all the riders that we discussed above, we come to the following categorisation:

Five stars: Roglic, Lopez
Four stars: Carapaz, Valverde
Three stars: Kruijswijk, Quintana, Chaves, Uran, Majka, Pogacar
Two stars: Fuglsang, Soler, Martinez, Higuita, Carthy, Poels, Geoghegan-Hart, Aru,
One star: Latour, Formolo, van Garderen, Kelderman, O. Rodriguez, I. Izagirre

As stated before, we think it will turn out into a Jumbo Visma vs Astana battle, with the Movistars as outside cards. Given the nature of our two favorites (Roglic & Lopez), it will basically be Roglic’ Vuelta to lose. He has the stronger TTT and a much stronger ITT. He has the team to force the other riders to ride along at his pace during some of the key climbs.

Lopez on the other hand has the team strength and the climbing capacities to launch long-range attacks in the mountains, and some of the stages feature final climbs that are tailor made for him due to the insane steepness of the road or the extraordinary inconsistency in terms of shifting gradients. If he is in-form and manages to crack Roglic on the climbs, we do not see anyone else beating him at this type of terrain.

Roglic, who seems to be at his very very best during one-week stage-races, will be pleased to see that -as discussed during the Vuelta Route Preview– the venom of this Vuelta is at it start and in the middle. This will make it harder for Lopez to make decisive moves as all the other riders will be relatively fresh compared to when he usually launches his week 3 mountain raids.

Which brings us to our final winner.

The Winner…..

No-one will be able to crack Primoz Roglic, due to the sheer strength of his team, his TT’ing edge and the favourable route. Behind him we will see Lopez battle it out with the Movistars for the other two podium spots. Further back along the GC ranks we hope to see one of the youngsters suprise us with a solid top-10 finish!