As expected, Roglic blew away the competition today and is now comfortably in the red jersey. For a moment, it also looked like Pogacar was going to suprise us all again, but he got a bit overconfident and blew himself up in the first part of the TT. Movistar are the big losers of today, especially Quintana who lost over 3(!) minutes.
The riders have no time to rest as tomorrow’s stage is a tricky one, so let’s take a look!
We are heading back to Spain today. Stage 11 starts in Saint-Palais in France and finishes in Urdax-Dantxarinea in the Basque County. This is a typical transitional stage with some medium mountains.
The start is tougher than it looks, but the first real climb only occurs after 70 kilometers which means there is plenty of time for a breakaway to form. The first climb, the Col d’Osquich, is not that tough as it is only 5km @ 6%. After roughly 40 kilometers of (relatively) flat valley, the second and hardest climb of the day dooms up, the Col d’Ispeguy.
This climb is 8km @ 6.4%, and as you can see on the profile, the last three kilometers are the hardest ones. If the strongest riders in the breakaway want to get rid of some faster guys in the group, this is where they have to do it.
The descent of the Col d’Ispéguy is immediately followed by the third and final climb of the day, the Col de Otxonde(7.6km @ 4.7%). These percentages should not scare any rider, and it is still almost 30 kilometers to the finish line after descending the Otxonde, so there is plenty of time for dropped riders and escapees to get back to the front group.
The GC riders need to attack and gain time on Roglic, but this does not look like a stage where such a thing is possible. Therefore, it seems like a perfect stage for a breakaway. The start is tough with several steep, uncategorized hills, which means the breakaway will likely consist of strong puncheurs and climbers. We don’t see any team trying to chase the breakaway, as the GC riders will try to save energy for tougher days and the pure sprinters will not survive the climbs.
Perfect cycling weather tomorrow, around 22 degrees with no rain or significant wind.
Luka Mezgec
Now that his GC-leader Chaves has truly fallen down the ranking, there is no reason to not give Mezgec a free role. He is one of the fastest riders this Vuelta, and he should be able to survive the climbs of today. If he makes it to the finish in the front group, he will be very hard to beat.
Alex Aranburu
He was very close on stage 8, only being beaten by Arndt. He will want revenge, and this stage is the perfect opportunity. He has shown that both his climbing and sprinting legs are great, so he will be very hard to beat. And finally, we will be finishing in Basque Country, so he will want nothing more than a home victory.
Philiphe Gilbert
Deceuninck-Quickstep has had a rider in almost any significant breakaway, and we think tomorrow is going to be a day for Gilbert. Apart from 1 breakaway attempt, we haven’t seen that much of him yet, but he remains a quality rider who only needs one good day to battle for the victory.
Dylan Teuns
Teuns seems to love being in breakaways, and since he has not gotten his desired victory yet, we’ll just keep naming him! Since the finish is flat and not uphill, he might need to go solo if he truly wants to win.
Outsiders: Cavagna, Boasson Hagen, Bol, Stybar, van der Sande
A Basque victory in the Basque Country. We think Alex Aranburu will win tomorrow!
