TOUR OF POLAND 2019 – STAGE 7 PREVIEW
What a stage today! Fierce performances by Ben Swift and Grmay, who managed to attack in the final of the stage, but did not make it to the finish line? Why, because a Jumbo-Visma youngster set an astonishing pace at the front of the peloton, to subsequently jump away from the peloton and eventually take the stage win. It was the young Danish climber Vingegaard who closed the gap to Swift, and then jumped away from the main group only to be followed by Sivakov and Hindley. The three man up-front took equal turns to establish and maintain a gap and dragged it all the way to the finish line. Vingegaard won the sprint with Sivakov -our GC pick and stage pick for today- taking valuable bonus seconds and a second place. Unfortunate for our 51/1 bet on Sivakov to take the stage, but Vingegaard was simply stronger today. With the GC so close and only one stage remaining tomorrow’s stage is bound to be exciting, so let’s take a look at the route!
The Route:
Tomorrow’s stage has another climbing lap circuit. The main challenges in the circuits are the Sciana Bukovina (1.5 km @ 10%) and the Rzepiska (2.5km @ 6.9%). After the lap circuit we will have a final climb of 3.45km @ 5.45% with some steeper sections between kilometer 4 and 2 (~8%) and only a small gradient in the final kilometer (3.6%).
The Race:
Since stage 6 was ridden very hard, expect some tired legs at the end of the seemingly easier lap circuit in this stage. The strongest riders will battle for overall victory.
People who are still in the race for GC: Vingegaard (race leader), Sivakov (-4 seconds), Hindley (-6 seconds), Ulissi (-17 seconds), Higuita (-18 seconds), Latour (-19 seconds), Formolo, Hamilton, Majka, Knox, Geoghegan-Hart (all -20 seconds), Ion Izzagire (-23 seconds). This means Ineos (Sivakov, Geoghegan-Hart), BORA (Formolo, Majka) and Sunweb (Hamilton, Hindley) still have multiple cards to play, with Ineos and Sunweb seemlingly having the strongest cards with each having a rider within ‘bonification second distance’ of winning the GC.
Given this complex situation we expect a lot of fireworks tomorrow!
The Favorites:
Higuita
Initially ended up in the wrong group, but this did not seem to have been a case of poor form, because he eventually ended up sprinting from the main group to finish second behind of Ulissi.
Majka
Seemed to be stronger than Formolo today. Still, has to show up stronger tomorrow if he wants to take the win. Formolo the other GC-hope for Bora also deserves a mention. If he has the legs he can attack early and set-up a 1-2 with Majka, but he did not seem to have ‘it’ today.
Vingegaard
Such a strong display today that he deserves a mention. He might suffer from his energy expenditure today, but if he shows up just as strong tomorrow anyone will have a hard time riding him out of the GC jersey.
Ulissi
If he takes a handfull of seconds on his rivals and wins the stage, he can still win the GC. Managed to stay with the GC group and was the fastest of this group in the sprint.
Sivakov
Was outsprinted by Vingegaard, but did really well. Given that he is only 4 seconds behind Vingegaard, he is in pole-position for the final victory if Vingegaard cracks tomorrow. I don’t think that he has the sprint to win on this kind of finish. He will probably use Geoghegan-Hart to tire and hopefully crack Vingegaard, after which he can defend against attacks from the main group.
Swift
If he has the same legs as today he will argueably win this stage. However, he might be tired and he might have to do his work at the front of the peloton to set-up Sivakov or Geoghegan-Hart for the GC victory by tiring Vingegaard. Still, only 49 seconds behind on GC after 6 stages is worth a honorable mention.
Outsiders: I.Izagirre, Latour, Knox, Geoghegan-Hart
The Winner:
We believe Ulissi will win sprint a reduced bunch sprint tomorrow taking the stage, but not creating a sufficient gap to overtake our blog’s pick Sivakov as the GC winner!
