Interesting sprint today, awesome lead-out by Richeze, who turned to be the main reason the fastest sprinter did not win today. It was Jakobsen who was delivered well ahead of all the other riders and managed to just defend it up to the finish line versus Bennett who seemed a lot faster. Walscheid managed to get a nice podium, with Gaviria and Mezgec rounding off the top-5.
There is a lot to discuss for tomorrow as we will have our first mountain summit finish, so let’s get started!
Stage 5 (165.6 km) will take us from L’Eliana to the Observatorio Astrofisico de Javalambre. A start at the 2nd cat Puerto de Alcublas (the break should form here) will need to be riden at a slow pace, since GC teams want to save their domestiques for the fairly flat intermediate (for a mountain stage) that will lead us to the bottom of the Alto de Javalambre, which starts 11km from the finish line (after 154 km) and takes us from 1075m above sea, to an altitude of 1950m.
With a mountain finish, this stage is bound to be circled in red by all the strong GC men in the peloton. Who-ever manages to impress tomorrow will probably fare well for the rest of the Vuelta. Riders that are not in form (yet) can lose their GC ambitions here! With that said, let’s take a closer look at the final climb.
3 kilometers are false-flat, but then the carnage starts: 8 kilometers with a gradient that rarely falls below 10%, with a steepest section of 16% (for just over 500 meters). This 16% section after 6 kilometers should be a launchpad for the real mountain goats to launch their attacks as it is a manage-able distance to the finish from there (less than 5km) which will allow them to put a lot of time into their opponents if the attack is succesfull. In spring 2019 the first half of the route ran along rough stone and gravel roads, but according to the organisers everything should be like the roads in the picture below now:
Perfect racing weather today with fresh temperatures on the Javalambre and a light breeze from the north. Should not have any effect on the climb and will allow for some nice racing.
An early break will form on the cat2 climb, but with too many riders having something to fight for tomorrow they most likely will not make it all the way to the finish. Why? Because Roglic is the strongest ITT’er and the other GC man who are mostly climbers will have to make the race as tough as they can for Roglic and hope to put time into him on multiple occasions. With the third week being less difficult than usual, the main GC riders might be forced to put their cards on the table earlier than usual.
There are four teams that in our opinion have the power to light things up on the final climb tomorrow: Astana, Jumbo-Visma, EF and Movistar.
With that said, let’s talk some favorites/tactics!
Miguel Angel Lopez
One of the best climbers in the world! Astana has the firepower to light things up and probably will. It will be up to MAL to capitalize on this. Only has one stage-win to his name this year (during the Tour of Catalunya). Will be among the very best, but will he have the edge to drop all the others and arrive solo in week one? We don’t think so.
Primoz Roglic
Where-ever he goes, he usually wins! Shouldn’t be discounted and seems to be in perfect form even despite his crash. Jumbo-Visma’s climbing train took a big hit today with Kruijswijk dropped out, but with Bennett, Gesink and Kuss he still haves some climbers that should last deep into the final of the stage. He has the luxury of a stronger ITT so he does not have to chase down every solo attack. If he arrives at the finish line in the front group, he will one of the riders who has the punch to challenge for the win.
Nairo Quintana
Very impressive stage win in stage 2, looks to be in this perfect post-Tour form so he should capitalize on it! The way he sprinted all the way until he was over the finish line underlined what everyone already knew: Nairo is here to attempt and win the Vuelta! He can take both the red and the green jersey if he wins tomorrow’s stage so this will be a huge opportunity for the gifted Colombian!
The finish climb is a perfect climb for him. If he has the same offensive attitude as on stage two and attacks halfway trough the climb, we don’t see anyone who can drop him. Will have to arrive solo if he wants to win, which we can see happening if he brings the same fighting spirit that got him his stage win! When he won his stage in the Tour de France (stage 18) he managed to produce the most impressive wattages of the entire race (even better than Bernal’s), so the potential is there.
Alejandro Valverde
The one who could profit from Quintana’s unique position. He can ride defensively all the way up to the finish line if Quintana attacks, and should be confident of winning the sprint if he finishes in the first group. Looks strong and will be looking to get some impressive results in his home-race!
Rigoberto Uran
Always does decent on these type of finishes, but rarely ever wins. Is notorious for wheelsucking and lacks the punch that some other riders may have. He can take the red jersey if he wins, so maybe that will motivate him to ride a more offensive race! Expect a good result from him tomorrow, but probably no win.
Sergio Higuita
One of the two wildcards, extremely fast finisher! Beat Alejandro to the finish in stage 2 and showed that he has some great climbing legs during the races earlier in this season. If he does not have to work for Uran and makes it to the finish line with the favorites he will have a unique opportunity of taking a stage-win!
Tadej Pogacar
Won the stage to mount baldy during the Tour of California (with Higuita finishing second) which is somewhat comparable to tomorrow’s stage. Looks to be on great form and no too affected by the crash and will in our opinion seriously challenge tomorrow. Given his age a finish in the main group will be a huge result already, but we think Pogacar could be capable of more! Has a really strong uphill finish so if he is still there he will fight for the win!
Pierre Latour
The Frenchman made a really strong impression on the stage 2 climb, where he was very active and was one of the main riders to ignite the GC action. Has a strong kick so if he is able to climb with the very best he could grab a stage-win tomorrow. Honestly, despite the general consensus, we don’t think he will. There are just too many better climbers around, but we hope the Frenchman can suprise us.
Outsiders: Chaves, Aru, Kelderman, Majka, Soler, Carthy, Nieve, Bennett, Geogegan-Hart, Formolo, Teuns
Scenario 1: A rider arrives solo
To be honest we only see this happening for either Quintana or Lopez
Scenario 2: A select group makes it to the finish line
If a select group of the strongest GC riders makes it to the finish we can see a puncher like Valverde, Roglic, Pogacar or Higuita win the stage.
Scenario 3: Breakaway makes it to the finish
Keep an eye on Dylan Teuns (perfect finish for him, but did not seem strong enough it stage two to battle it out with the GC’s) and Geogegan-Hart/Soler, but we do not see this happening.
Nairoman Quintana to arrive solo and take red, green and a stage-win!
