Vuelta a España 2019 – Stage 13 Preview

Post Series: Vuelta a España 2019

To our suprise, today turned out to be a day for the breakaway after all. It did not look that way for a long time however, as it took over 100(!) furious kilometers before the peloton finally let go of a breakway group.

In the end it was Gilbert(who we did mention as an outsider) who was the strongest on the final Mur. Aranburu got very close to his desired victory, but he could not catch Gilbert and had to settle for another second place. Let’s hope he finds his desired victory later on in the Vuelta.

If thought today’s final climb was steep, you are in for a treat tomorrow!

The Route:

The riders won’t have to worry about a long transfer this afternoon, as stage 13 starts in the same place as the finish of stage 12: Bilbao. The race will then head west towards the finish on top of Los Muchacos in Cantabria. It is the first of three very tough mountain stages in the second week of this year’s Vuelta, so we expect fireworks!

Apart from the very start, there is barely a a meter of flat road tomorrow. Before the riders will face the Los Machucos(more on that in a bit), they will have to tackle 6 climbs:
– Alto de la Escrita: 5.9 kilometers at 4%
– Alto de Ubal: 7.9 kilometers at 6%
– Collado de Asón: 13 kilometers at 4%
– Puerto de Alisas: 8.5 kilometers at 6%
– Puerto de Fuente la Varas : 6.3 kilometers at 4.5%
– Puerto de la Cruz Usaño : 4.2 kilometers at 4.7%

As you can see, none of those climbs are that difficult by themselves. The danger lies in the fact that they are all following each other in quick succesion. This means there will be almost no moment for the riders to rest their legs for a bit.

But to be honest, the first 6 climbs are all just a small warm-up compared to the final climb, which is one of the hardest of this entire Vuelta!

If you thought today’s Mur’s were steep, you haven’t seen this one yet. The final climb of tomorrow is the Los Machucos, a monstrous climb of 6.8 kilometers at 9.2% . As you can see on the profile, that percentage does not do the climb justice and would be much higher if it weren’t for the several very short flat and downhill sections. The final kilometer consists of a short descent and then another 500 meters on false flats.

Two years ago, the Los Machucos was climbed for the first time in the Vuelta, and Stefan Denifl won in front of an unleashed Contador(we now know how Denifl managed to win.., as he has been banned for doping and Contador has been awarded the stage win). The time gaps between the favorites weren’t that big last time, and we might see the same scenario tomorrow if nobody manages to drop Roglic.

The Race:

This has to be a day for the GC-riders. Even though we were wrong with our prediction today, we simply can’t see it go any other way tomorrow. These are the stages where any team that still has the ambition to win the overall (looking at you Movistar and Astana) has to show themselves. Valverde, Quintana, and Lopez will want to sent out several domestiques to the front who can act as a support for when they attack.

So far, Roglic has not shown any signs of weakness, and if it wasn’t for the bad luck in the opening TTT and the crash on the gravel in stage 9 he would have been even further ahead. Hopefully, the other teams haven’t given up yet and will try to make the race as hard as possible.

The Weather:

It is going to be another cold day out on the road with a maximum temperature of only 18 degrees. Throughout the day there is also a change for some light rain.

The Favorites:

Primoz Roglic
Simply the strongest rider in the race so far. Aside for some moments of bad luck, he has never really been in any trouble. With Kuss and Bennett, his team is strong as well and together they should be able to neutralize any attacks so that Roglic can go for the stage win.

Alejandro Valverde
Valverde loves climbs like the one we see tomorrow, as he is a master in climbing at extremely steep gradients. He also has the fastest sprint out of all the GC-contenders, so if it ends up being a sprint from a very small elite group, he will be the big favorite.

Nairo Quintana
We will just say the same thing again. Quintana was the biggest loser in the time-trial, so he has to start making up time to Roglic as soon as he can. It is probably a bit too soon in the race for an all-or-nothing attack, but it might be his only change to still win the red jersey.

Miguel Angel Lopez
The final climb might be a bit too short and steep for Lopez, as he prefers longer and more gradual climbs. Nonetheless, he will be up there with the best tomorrow and if he can launch another blistering attack like on stage 9, he has a chance to win.

Tadej Pogacar
Every day he just keeps suprising us a little more(can we even still call it a suprise at this point though?). He has not shown any signs of fatigue so far, so with his amazing form he will once again be challenging the established names tomorrow.

Outsiders: Martinez, Majka, Kelderman, Higuita, Chaves, Latour