Vuelta a España 2019 – Stage 2 Preview

Even though we managed to win our Quickstep top-3 bet today, as cycling fans this was an absolute anti-climax. Water on the road halfway trough the TTT caused almost the entire Jumbo and Emirates teams to crash. On top of that a Jumbo-Visma following car positioned itself at a really awkward corner, causing damage to Quickstep riders. Both Jumbo-Visma and Quickstep could have won here, so unfortunately the strongest team did not win today. Some really bad advertisement for the Vuelta who should have been warned because of the chaos during the recon and extremely frustrating for everyone in favor of equal circumstances for all teams and riders.

Given the small difference between Quickstep and Astana at the finish line (2 seconds) we could have had Gilbert in red tomorrow, who will obviously be furious right now.
However, tomorrow’s route might offer him a second chance to grab bonification seconds at the finish line and to appropriate himself his well-deserved red jersey in his final season at Quickstep. In order to do so, he will have to beat quite a list of other quality riders. Does he have what it takes? Let’s first take a closer look at tomorrow’s route.

The Route:

The second stage starts in Benidorm, and takes a detour to the west before finishing in Calpe. Benidorm is known as one of the biggest tourist hotspots in Spain, with many Dutch, German and British youth travelling there for a summer of partying. Also, an increasing amount of (rich) elderly people decide to spent their winter in Benidorm to get away from the cold up north.

Now, let’s take a look at today’s route. The Vuelta wouldn’t be the Vuelta if it did not immediately give a riders a deceivingly hard stage on rolling terrain. Almost right after the start, the riders will have to tackle the Puerto de Confrides (20.4km @ 3.6%) and the Alto de Benilloba (6.4km @ 4.2%).

The outcome of the race will be decided on the Alto Puig Llorenca, a grueling 3 kilometer long climb with an average gradient of almost 10%.

After the Alto de Puig Llorenca, it is still 25 kilometers to the finish line on mostly false flat terrain.

The Race:

Because this is the first ‘true’ stage of the race, there are still some jersey’s up for grabs. The Spanish wild-card teams such as Caja – Rural, Burgos and Euskadi will want to be in the breakaway to collect some points for the mountains jersey.

Once the two first climbs of the day are out of the way, the peloton can easily keep the breakaway in check, before accelerating leading up to the Alto de Puig Llorenca. On this climb, the teams with fast climbers will set the pace very high to drop all the pure sprinters as fast as possible.

We think there will be a group of about 50/60 riders left after the final climb that will sprint for victory. It will be interesting to see if any of the truely fast sprinters will be able to get back in in peloton in the last 25km, but we think that is highly unlikely. Therefore, this will be a day will be for the fast climbers and puncheurs!

The Weather:

The riders can look forwards to a nice a sunny day on the Costa Blanca with maximum temperatures of around 26 degrees.

The Favorites

Luka Mezgec
Without a doubt the best climber out of all pure sprinters in the race. If there is a sprinter that might be able to survive the last climb, it’s Mezgec. He showed some amazing form in Poland by winning two stages and beating the likes of Ackermann and Gaviria. Also, he managed to survive as only sprinter in a very comparable stage (Tour of Slovenia – Stage 2, click for profile) where other top-tier climbing sprinters were dropped.If he manages to stay in the peloton, we think it will be very hard for anyone else who survived to beat him in the sprint.

Philippe Gilbert
This stage should be way too hard for his teammate and pure sprinter Fabio Jakobsen, which means Gilbert might be able to sprint for the victory himself, which would also implicate a red jersey for him and his team due to bonification seconds if he manages to finish top-3 and ahead of the Astana riders! His team has no GC duties so they can fully commit to riding a furious pace on the climb to drop all the faster riders.
He might not be the fastest man, but he is one of the smartest. If he does not manage to drop all of the faster riders we would not be suprised if he tries to go for a sneaky attack in the last kilometers to suprise the peloton

Alejandro Valverde
If the race is made hard on the final climb and only the climbers and puncheurs survive, Valverde will be one of the main contenders for the victory. For Valverde’s (incredibly high) standards, he is not having the best of seasons. However, as everyone should know by now, you should never doubt Valverde.

Alex Aranburu
He is one of the two fast man of Caja Rural, together with his teammate Aberasturi. We think this stage should be better suited for Aranburu, since he is the better climber of the two. He has proven he is in top shape by winning a stage in the Vuelta a Burgos, and his team would be delighted to start their Vuelta with a good result.

Sam Bennett
Without a doubt the fastest man in the race. Even though he has improved his climbing abilities pretty well this season, the final climb should be too hard for him, especially if a team like Quickstep decided to up the pace. Therefore, the only way for Bennett is win is when the peloton takes it easy on the final climb.

Outsiders: Hagen, Degenkolb, Sanchéz, Bevin

The Winner:

Given his recent display of form in both the sprints and uphil , we just cant look past Luka Mezgec for this stage. We are hoping to also see Gilbert featured in the top-3 as it would be a nice goodbye gift for Quickstep in his last season.