Vuelta a España 2019 – Stage 20 Preview

Post Series: Vuelta a España 2019

Another seemingly boring stage that ended up not so boring today! After a chute in which Roglic and Miguel Angel Lopez were involved it were the Movistars who, to the frustration of the rest of the peloton, started riding a furious pace. Eventually Roglic and MAL returned, but Valverde’s popularity took quite a hit.

Back at the front it was Cavagna who attacked from the break-away and solo’d all the way to the finish line. Behind him Sam Bennett took an impressive second place on such a tough finished, followed by most of our blog favorite picks (Stybar, Gilbert, Valverde, Teuns, van der Sande etc.).

Tomorrow will be the last chance for GC riders to make their mark. It will also be the last opportunity for climbers that are behind on GC to go for a stage win, as all that rests after tomorrow is the criterium to Madrid.

The Route:

Stage 20 takes us from Arenas de San Pedro all the way to Plataforma de Gredos. A long stage and an interesting profile!

Stage 20 profile

Another explosive start as the riders will have 16 kilometer of rolling terrain until the first two major climbs of the day, the Puerto de Pedro Bernardo (18.4 km @ 4.5%) and the Alto de Navatalgordo (3km @ 7.2%). The breakaway is likely to form at this part of the stage.

From the top of the Navatalgordo we have around 90 kilometer of constant ascending and descending on hilly terrain. This will sap energy out of the legs of alot of riders before we arrive at the semi-final climb of the day after 142 km: the Puerto de Pena Negra (14.2 km @ 5.2%). An energy-sapping but manageable climb.

The final climb (3rd cat) has a profile of 9.4 km @ 3.8%, but theres a lot of descending inbetween. If we take a look at the final 5 kilometers we can see that the actual gradient of the final 3 kilometers is almost 9%. A punchy finish!

The Weather:

We’re swapping around the ‘race’ and ‘weather’ sections this time, because we have something interesting to present to you!

Rain, a lot of it. With 13.1mm expect in the afernoon the riders are in for a really wet day! With GC riders hesitant to take risks in the descents, this could provide opportunities for riders that are willing to risk it all!

The Race:

The question is: will the breakaway make it? We are inclined to say yes! Mainly for three reasons:

Jumbo-Visma is hurt after the crash of today, and they can’t count on their usual mountain train team strength, so they will try to set a slower pace than usual.
Roglic is so far ahead on GC and has shown so much strength that by now riders will be defending their position in GC/ attacking their nearest rival, rather than looking at the top spot.
The weather conditions will favor those who are willing to take risks up on the road. The top-5 of the GC are definately not amongst those.

So, breakaway lottery! Who still has got enough in the tank to pull it of in such a demanding stage?

The Favorites:

Mikel Nieve
Mitchelton still need a result, and with Chaves seemingly out of form -even though this finish would suit him well- Nieve should be their last shot tomorrow to give it a go!

Neilson Powless
One of the riders who didn’t crash. A blog’s favorite and we would love to see Jumbo putting him in the break tomorrow. He has been eager to ride, and tomorrow’s gradients should be manageable for the talented American.

Daniel Martinez/ Sergio Higuita
The EF options. Higuita already won his stage and made a very strong week 3 impression. We are uncertain about Martinez, but we won’t be suprised to see both of them in the break tomorrow.

Pierre Latour
The last chance for the talented frenchman. Tomorrow’s finale is perfect for him, so it would be a shame not to see him try!

Felix Großschartner
Another great stage for him, and an even more manageable finale than the earlier stages where we mentioned him as one of the favorites! Could be used as a forward post for Majka (just like Powless) and win from there.

Wout Poels/Geogegan-Hart
See Martinez/ Higuita. Except for the fact that Geogegan-Hart hasn’t won a stage yet. He will definately try again tomorrow as Ineos are in desperate need for a result in this race!

Jakob Fuglsang/Ion Izzagire
Fuglsang won his stage with a great display of strength, Ion Izzagire hasn’t but has been very active as a loyal domestique for Lopez. We expect Lopez to attack the podium tomorrow (Quintana) so we don’t think that these two will be given a lot of freedom.

Ruben Guerrero
Made a very active impression over the past days and is on great form! The final climb suits him and he should be given all freedom by his team to go for a good result. Will he have the edge to beat the others on the final climb?

Outsiders: Knox, Teuns, Pernsteiner, Edet, Chaves, Frankiny, Rodriguez, Eg