Tour de France 2020 – Stage 4 preview

Super impressive explosive stage win by the pocket rocket Caleb Ewan in what can be considered an hectic finale. In what can arguebly be conceived as one of the worst prediction streaks of this blog, will tomorrow have something better in store?

Let’s take a look at the route!

The Route:

Stage 4 takes us from Sisteron to Orcieres-Merlette. A typical ____/ stage which means we will have to focus on the final climb (7.1km @ 6.7)

The first 145 km’s will be rolling terrain where a breakaway will be allowed to establish a gap, but it will all come down to the final climb:

A not overly difficult climb, but given it’s at the end of the stage and its gradients are steady, will be ridden at an incredible speed. Expect the lines of Jumbo and INEOS to deploy their train in full force here.

The climb contains a lof of hairpoints of which the most noticeable is at 1500 meters to go, from there on its one straight grind to the finish line.

The Weather:

A light breeze, cold temperatures at the top of the climb, and negligeable tailwind in the last 1500 meters.

The Race:

After the slow pace at which pace 4 was ridden, everyone will be fresh and hyper focussed on today’s stage. With plenty of teams sensing an opportunity to seize yellow, we don’t think the break will be allowed to stay away.

For most other riders it will be a matter of staying in the wheel of one of the trains, hoping that there’s something left in the tank for a punch in the final 1500 meters. So, who do we expect to see up there challenging for the victory?

The Favorites:

Adam Yates
Mighty strong accelleration in stage 2, only 7 seconds behind on Alaphillipe in GC. Stated that he senses multiple opportunities in the first week of this race. If he attacks out of a hairpin with 2 km’s to go, will anyone but Alaphilippe bother to counter him?

Julian Alaphilippe
We still don’t think he looks as strong as last year, but his stage 2 display was rather impressive. This kind of ‘grinding’ climb is not amongst his favorites, whereas he would have prefered the climb to be a bit shorter and steeper. Still, like last years tour showed is, this is within Alaphilippe’s range. What we do know that he will give it his all to hold onto yellow, maybe adding a second stage win in the proces?

Sergio Higuita
A bit under the radar, but looks perfectly fine and almost outsprinted GvA in a flat finish. Expect the former lead-out pocket climber to be amongst the top ranks tomorrow!

Primoz Roglic
Has the strength to overwhelm all his competitors in the final kilometer, but will he go all-out for yellow or will he be able to contain himself and just follow the wheels of his main competitors?

Egan Bernal
He won’t beat Roglic to the line, and Roglic will not allow Bernal an inch of freedom.

Tadej Pogacar
See Bernal

Richard Carapaz
Fast finisher! And what will Roglic do when Carapaz attacks? Interesting to see if and how INEOS will play this card

Nairo Quintana
Overlooked, but we are keeping an eye on the talented Colombian.

Breakaway lottery
Barguil, Zakarin, Ion Izagirre, Kamna, de Marchi, Elissonde

The Winner:

Primoz Roglic, unable to contain himself, showing everyone who’s boss.