Tour de France 2020 – Stage 1 preview

The Grand Depart! Three different loops in the hinterland of Nice along the Cote de Rimiez (5.8 km @ 5.1%) will provide for some interesting race dynamics! Will we see a mass-sprint, a reduced sprint from the bunch, or will an offensive rider be able to secure the first Maillot Jaune in this extraordinary edition of the Tour de France?

Let’s take a look at the route!

The Route:

Stage 1 takes us through the surroundings of Nice. The riders will have to climb the Cote de Rimiez (5.8 km @ 5.1%) two times, after which a descent and 30 kilometers of flat will take them to the finish line in Nice.

After the third climb of the Cote de Rimiez the riders will have to endure an additional altitude gain of 170 meters over the course of 8 kilometers (8 km @ ~2-3%).

The final 5k are on wide roads along the Mediterranean coast of nice. A top-notch train is hugely benificial in these type of finishes!

The Weather

A cloudy day with little to no rain and a light breeze, which shouldn’t influence the outcomes of the race by too much at this type of finish.

The Race

With everyone still being fresh, the shortness of the route, the favourable conditions and the high stakes for the first mailot jaune. We expect the race to end in a (mass) sprint. The size of the bunch that will be up for sprinting will depend on the pace that is set on the final ascent of the day and the false flat that follows afterwards.

Basically Deceuninck (Bennett), Lotto (Ewan) and Sunweb (Bol) will be looking for an easy race as they know that their sprinters are intrinsicly the fastest, but not the best when it comes to climbing. Teams like NTT (Nizzolo), B&B (Coquard), Scott (Mezgec), Cofidis (Viviani), AG2R (Venturini) and Trek (Pedersen/Stuyven/Theuns). Also, opportunistic solo offensives might be launched by riders looking to steal the first Yellow jersey of the year.

Quickstep has such a strong squad that its questionable whether -if Bennet manages to keep up- anyone will be able to bring them or Lotto into difficulties.

The Favorites

Sam Bennett
Arrives in form and has the best train of the race, which is hugely beneficial in a finish like this

Caleb Ewan
The pocket-sprinter arrives in form and recently beat Bennet in a similar sprint in the Tour de Wallonie. However, the Quickstep train in Wallonie is a different one as the one that’s featured in LeTour. And the Lotto train is almost identical. Will be challenging for the win!

Giacomo Nizzolo
Will the Italian/European champion be able to outsprint Bennett and Ewan? We highly doubt if he has the intrinsic acceleration to do so, but he very well might.

Cees Bol
Should do well in these type of stages. Form is questionable, but the management as sunweb recently stated that they have a lot of faith in him coming into the Tour de France. Might suprise with a top-3 finish!

Sagan/Coquard/Colbrelli/Mezgec/Bonifazio/Kristoff etc.
If the race truely explodes these riders might stand a chance from a reduced bunch sprint, but that’s not what we are expecting.

Wout van Aert
Jumbo Duty

The Winner

The conditions are perfect and so is his leadout, easy: Sam Bennet!