Tour de France 2020 – Stage 2 preview

Where everyone expected a boring sprint stage, yesterdays stage was far from boring! Due too the rain and the slippery roads it looked more like a battle royale rather than a Tour de France-stage.

The second stage is also un-touresque for a week one stage, given that is features a lot of climbing action from the go. With the polkadots certainly, and the yellow almost certainly up for grabs tomorrow, who will seize this huge opportunity?

Let’s take a look at the route!

The Route:

Stage 2 starts and ends in Nice and resembles the last stage of the recent editions of Paris-Nice, which usually resulted in attractive racing. The route contains two cat 1 climbs in the first half of the stage, only to be followed by the Col d’ Eze (7.8 km @ 6.1%) and the uncategorized Col des Quatre Chemins, after which a descent to the finish line follows.

The race commences with a false flat into the Col de Colmiane (16.3km @ 6.3%). The first real climb of the day.

A long grind with moderate percentages. This is where the main GC teams will set a steady pace whichs allow them to retain most of their domestiques over the top of this climb. This will provide opportunities for other (second-row) climbers to form a breakaway. With the Maillot Jaune at stakes teams like Jumbo/INEOS will be very selective in deciding who they are allowing to do so. We don’t expect any more fireworks on this col.

After a 20 km descent, the next climb of the day shows up: the Col de Turini (14.9 km @ 7.4%)

Don’t misunderstand us, this climb is incredibly tough. The first kilometers which are relatively easy make this climb -on average- seem more easy than it is. It is an interesting climb in the sense that it has constantly varying Vuelta-esque gradient percentages.

With the Maillot Jaune at stake, and some question marks regarding GC rider injuries/form, three things can happen at this point.

1. If the breakaway gap is not too big, stronger climbers/ co-leaders might try and get away on the steep ramps halfway trough the climb to bridge the gap to the front group.
2. Teams might try and test the likes of top-notch GC riders who suffered injuries leading up to the tour (e.g. Bernal/Roglic/Buchmann/Quintana) or crashed yesterday (e.g. Pinot). We wouldn’t be too suprised to see a team like Bahrein try and inflict some pinpricks early-on to put these riders to the test.
3. We might see Jumbo/INEOS put on their usual pace, allowing the breakaway some, but not too much space. Remember that after this climb it is still 80km to the finish line and there is plenty of room to set things rights.

After this monster first-week climb. A long descent leads us to the final categorized climb of the day: the Col d’ Eze (7.8 km @ 6.1%)

The venom of this climb is in the first two kilometers, and if a rider manages to sneak away there, there are two kilometers of false-flat (km 4 & 5) to cover up for that. If the breakaway still exists of this point, any rider that managed to hang on at the Col de Turini will be hard to drop at this point. When the riders reach the top of this climb, a short interesting descent leads them into the final (uncategorized) climb of the day, which is basically the last 3 km of the Col d’Eze. From the top of this uncategorized climb (the Col de Quatre Chemins) it is only 9 kilometers of mostly descending towards the finish line, so expect the puncheurs of the peloton to give it their all here.

The final 2 km are flat on wide-open roads. So unless a rider arrives solo, expect the fastest in the remaining group to take the stage win and the second Mailot Jaune!

The Weather

A perfect day in the saddle, and a gentle head-wind in the final 1500 meters of this stage, which shouldn’t influence the outcomes of the race by much. The roads might still be somewhat wet from yesterday and last nights rain, which might increase the difficulties of descending the Turini.

The Race

While the stage design is particulary attractive, we think it is too early for the likes of Jumbo/Ineos to take control of the race. Obtaining the maillot jaune this early also means having additional responsabilities, something these teams won’t be looking for as early as stage two.

On the other hand, everyone knows how long Alaphillipe managed to keep the Mailot Jaune after being allowed some freedom by the main GC riders, so the teams will be super keen in deciding who they will allow freedom on the first cat 1. climb.

The Col de Turini will decide the outcome of the race. If the race explodes it will be a GC showdown, if not it will be up to the breakaway to decide who grabs yellow. We expect the second scenario to happen. It’s early in the race, the strongest team’s GC riders are still recovering from an injury, and the other teams will have to blow all their gunpower just to attempt to tear the race apart here.

The Favorites

Julian Alaphillipe
Obviously a stage for him. Can win both from the GC group as well as from the breakaway, but will the other teams allow him to do so? Expect Cavagna (in great form recently) or Asgreen in the breakaway to cover all the different racing scenario’s that might play out.

Sergio Higuita
One of those climbers who might just be allowed some freedom by both EF and the other teams. Can win from both scenario’s and is more likely to get the nod of Jumbo/INEOS to put a little time into them. Packs one of the fastest sprints of the non-sprinters, so will sense a huge opportunity here. Form is questionable!

Alejandro Valverde
Said he is here as a domestique for mass during the team presentation, but will the 40-year old veteran let go on a stage that seems tailor made for him with yellow up for grabs?

Alexey Lutsenko
Will love this stage! Packs a good sprint . Will he be allowed the freedom to hunt the yellow jersey, or will he be on Lopez duty? Another option will be his teammate Pello Bilbao, who is in good form and packs a fast punch!

Benoit Cosnefroy
A huge opportunity for this young rider, and an opportunity for another French yellow jersey upset. Put up a strong showing in a similar stage in the Deauphine, and did very well at the European Road Race last week. Put up a rather large offensive yesterday which costs energy, something he might have wanted to save for today. Still, with Bardet targeting the third week, he might be given the nod to go for glory!

Matteo Trentin
The pulls he did at last weeks European Championship showed a glimpse of the old Trentin. While his biggest competitor might be his own teammate (van Avermaet), Trentin will be confident of being able to keep up with the other riders in a breakaway, and surely packs one of the fastest sprints!

Greg van Avermaet
Dreams about yellow, and is always up for a tough day in the saddle, but it has been so long since he’s actually won something if we are wondering if the olympic champion still has what it takes. Also implies that there’s a chance that he will be saving himself troughout the tour for the classics later on.

Warren Barguil
Will have to distance himself to win. If he is present, the offensive frenchman will certainly try!

A solo rider win
Keep an eye on Cavagna, Mohoric, Benoot, Formolo, Hirschi, Kamna, Asgreen, Latour

Wout van Aert
Jumbo Duty

The Winner

Time for the pocket-rocket Higuita-monster to stand up and snatch yellow! If the other teams don’t allow him any space, we have a gut feeling that CCC has something in store for us!