UEC Road European Championships 2019 – Mens Road Race

Sunday will be the fourth time that the UEC European road race will take place. After wins by Trentin, Kristoff and Sagan, a new champion is very likely to emerge this year. This years parcours seems to favour a bunch sprint for victory, but there will be plenty of non-sprinters who will try to work out alternative ways to win this race. With that said, let’s take a closer look at the route!

The Route:

The race starts with an opening circuit of 46 km which leads us through some typically Dutch polder-landschapes. The riders will pass small places like West-Graftdijk, Grootschermen and Ursum, but most of the opening circuit will be riding out in the open where the wind has free play. There are plenty of opportunities for echelons, but we do not see this happening due to the nature of the race, which ends with an 11 rounds 11.5km city-circuit through and around Alkmaar.

This means that the wind will have a lot less influence within the more urban area’s and there will be plenty of opportunity to close down any kind of gap that might have been formed in the opening circuit.

The lap circuit contains some difficult corners and contains a cobbled section of 1.1 kilometers at around 2 kilometers before the end of the circuit, which means that we need to more closely examine these cobbles.

The google streetview footage shows that there is plenty of room for the wind to influence the race here. Unfortunately the organisers of the race did not close the gutters on each side of the cobbled road which will make life a lot easier for the sprinters and will make it a lot harder to attack here for the power-house cobble experts.

Still, as the riders will be taking this section in a westerly direction, a tailwind at this point could work in favor of a late attack. So, with that said, what do the weather gods have in store for us?

The Weather

There is no rain forecast for tomorrow and temperatures will be fairly low given the time of the year, with a maximum of around 19 degrees. There will be a fresh breeze in the afternoon from southwest direction. This means that the riders will face a headwind on the cobbled section.

The final kilometer contains some obstacles, but it is basically a straight line to the finish with a cross headwind. Launching your sprint too early will destroy your chances at this type of finish.

The Race:

We don’t expect the opening circuit to cause damage to any of the major contenders. If echelons occur they will fuse back together long before the final lap of the lap circuit. The amount of turns in the lap circuit will tire some legs, but still we only expect the real fireworks in the last lap.

As most riders will want to use the gutters at each side of the cobbled section, expect the remains of the peloton to be really stretched out at this point as it will most likely basically be a sprint towards the cobbled section, because all riders will want to be at the front of the peloton when they arrive there.

The pace will be tremendous and given that it is so close to the finish line we expect that it will derail most of what is left of the sprint trains. We might even see a bunch of sprint contenders losing so many positions themselves that they won’t make it back upfront in time to be able to challenge the sprint. Late attackers will try to give it a go on the cobbles, but given the headwind and the low difficulty of the section because of the gutters, it will take an absolute masterclass of a ride to succesfully attack.

What we do expect is basically a sprinters drop-out race. Sprinters that have strong teammates who can help them maintain their position and drop them off at the front of the peloton before the cobbles during the final lap will have a huge chance of being able to challenge for the victory.

Since positioning will be super important for all the reasons that have been discussed, we expect a fast sprinter, with good positional awareness and a strong team to rely on to win tomorrow.

So, let’s head on to the favorites!

The Favorites:

Dylan Groenewegen
(One of the) fastest men on the planet in these types of sprints who is riding a home race. He’s lucky to be from the same country as his favorite lead-out man at Jumbo Visma Mike Teunissen, who also happens to posess impressive positional awareness. If one man can guide someone into a winning position in a hectic final it is Teunissen. If they can arrive in the final kilometer together, he has a huge chance to take a home-win! Having Demare’s default lead-out Ramon Sinkeldam could also prove helpfull.

Pascal Ackermann
The other sprinter who has his favorite lead-out man from BORA at his disposal: Rudiger Selig. Just like Groenewegen, Ackermann excels at these types of sprints and should normally be challenging for the win here.

Elia Viviani
Being from Quickstep, Viviani knows how to deal with cobbled sections and his team is looking mighty strong. On paper he leads Italy, but as his team (Ballerini, Cimolai, Consonni, Pasqualon, Puccio, Sabatini, Trentin) basically consists of sprinters there might be competition within the team. He will be very pleased with the fact that Sabatini can guide him into a good position in the final, and he will be confident in his sprint after beating Bennett in the London Prudential Ride last week.

Sam Bennett
Arrives at this race with just McCarthy, Teggart and Townsend. He will have to rely on other sprinters to get into a good position and will then have to pick the right wheel if he wants to challenge for victory. He does have the sprint to finish it off, but at this type of parcours the team weakness could be a pitfall.

Demare
Had an impressive Giro and did not race a lot after. Became 11th in the France national championships and provided a no-show last week at the London Prudentials by finishing 35th. Still, given his past and his capabilities he deserves a mention. Does not arrive with the very best team in our opinion, but he does have Coquard and Senechal at his disposal.

Merlier
The wildcard cyclocross freakshow pick. Is in great form as he recently won races in which the competition was not the least, beating riders like Jakobsen and Philipsen at several occasions. Common sense says that he won’t make it tomorrow, but after seeing all the performances from van der Poel, van Aert and Evenepoel it is very hard to not mention him.

Outsiders (late attack):
Almost any of the standard spring classics late attackers

The Winner:

Viviani does not have his usual edge (his leadout train at Quickstep), Bennett lacks the team and Demare and Merlier are not strong enough compared to the two riders which -in our opinion- will fight for victory: Ackermann and Groenewegen.

The head to head statistics favor Groenewegen, and the fact that he is riding on home soil on a parcours that suits him perfect and with his finest lead-out man in front of him should give him the benefit of the doubt even though his Tour de France campaign was less succesful as expected: Dylan Groenewegen to become the European Road Race Champion of 2019!