CLÁSICA SAN SEBASTIÁN 2019 – PREVIEW
The 39th edition of the Clásica San Sebastián, the Basque climbing classic, will take place on the 3rd of August. A tough day in the saddle that is characterized by the rolling terrain and the steep climbs which the riders have to endure. In recent editions of the Clásica San Sebastián the winning attacks were always made at the final climb, will this year be different? It’s preview time!
The Route:
The race will start at its usual place: Donostia. The first ascent that the riders will encounter is the Alto de Meaga (3.7 km @ 3.4%- 3rd cat) after 27 kilometers. The first serious climb arrives after 52 km: the Alto Iturburu (7.1km @5% – 2nd cat). A group of riders will probably be on the attack at this point but we do not expect them to make it all the way to the finish.
The real cannons for this race will save themselves for the final climb: the Murgil-Tontorra which by all means can be considered a real mur. The climb is only 1.8 kilometers long but has an average gradient of 11.3%, with steep ramps of over 22%. Once the riders arrive at the top only 4 kilometers of descent and around 3 kilometers of flat seperates them from the finish line.
Weather-watch
The weather is expected to be very mild: cloudy but mostly dry (with a 20% chance for tiny amounts of rain). The maximum temperature of 26 degrees and the very light breeze coming from the north will surely look appealing to lots of riders.
The Race
So how will the race play out? Like other years we expect a break to go early in the race, only to be caught prior to the ascent of the Murgil Tontorra. The race will be won either by a solo attack on the Tontorra, or by a small, reduced sprint of riders that are able to climb with the best on the steep ramps of the Tontorra. Therefore, this race favors riders that have the climbing skills to survive the Tontorra, the descending skills to arrive at the final flat part of the race, but also pack a punch to finish the race.
Traditionally, some riders who arrive in-form after the Tour de France tend to do very well here as there is simply no way of training that mimics the race conditions of a 3 week Grand Tour. However, some Tour de France riders might underperform as they have not been able to recover sufficiently after the Tour for a tough day in the saddle like this, which is something to take into account.
The Favorites
There are 6 former winners on this years line-up: Mollema, Alaphilippe, Valverde, Gallopin, Luis-Leon Sanchez and Adam Yates. Bauke Mollema is probably the most notorious, having finished in the top-10 for the last six (!) editions.
On to the favorites!
Julian Alaphilippe
Rode an exceptionally exciting Tour de France where he managed to stay in yellow for almost two weeks. He showed that he has the climbing skills to climb with the best and being the strongest puncheur in the world he will be a marked man who will have a huge saying in the outcome of the race. However, it will be a huge question mark in which kind of shape he arrives at this race.
Bauke Mollema
The consistent pick, will almost certainly be amongst the top finishers. Has a proper sprint for a climber and has the power to keep an eventual advantage on the final few flat kilometers. Did not make a strong impression during the Tour and seemed tired from the Giro/Tour double. We expect him to be there in the final climb, but I cannot see him competing for the win.
Mikel Landa
The designated captain of Movistar for this race, and the rider that showed that the Giro/Tour double can actually be done succesfully. Showed a lot of attacking initiative during the tour and displayed quite some climbing legs, finishing in the top-10 of the GC. He does however lack the sprint to win a reduced bunch sprint and will therefore need to arrive solo if he wants to win this race.
Egan Bernal
Won the Tour the France and showed that, on a good day, he is one of the best if not the best climber in the world with who only few other riders can compete. Just as with Alaphilippe it will be a huge question mark how he will arrive at this race given the overwhelming amount of attention that comes with winning the Tour.
Alejandro Valverde
A rider who has won more than any other participant of this race. At 39 years old he proved to still posess top-tier climbing skills, and the final climbing stage of the tour (Val Thorens) showed that he still has the punch to escape from the strongest of climbers. Having won this race twice already (in 2018 and 2014) he will be eager to add a third victory to his palmares. It is interesting how Movistar will play this card as Landa is -on paper- their designated leader for this race.
Tony Gallopin
Another rider who traditionally does well at the Clásica San Sebastián. A rider who ticks all the marks: a strong climber, decent descender and he has the punch to finish the race. The question will be if he is strong enough to beat other riders who also tick these marks like Alaphilippe and Valverde.
Simon Yates
An exceptionally strong rider who somehow never managed to get a top-10 in this race even though the route is quite suitable for a rider with his skillset. Impressively outsprinted Bilbao and Muhlberger after a tough stage in this years Tour de France and a rider to watch closely during this years race.
Tadej Pogacar
A huge climbing talent who will probably be given a lot of freedom given the fact that the designated leader of his team (Dan Martin) hugely underperformed during the Tour de France. He also ticks all checkboxes, packs a strong sprint, and should be approaching top-form without fatigue given that he is riding the Vuelta for UAE.
Outsiders: Michael Woods, Dylan Teuns, Tim Wellens, Giulio Ciccone, Rigoberto Uran
The Winner:
It is just impossible to look past the rider who showed that he is the fastest man in the peloton that can keep up with the best climbers in climbs of this proportion, has world-class descending skills and is currently on great form. We therefore predict that Julian Alaphilippe will win the Clásica San Sebastián from a reduced bunch sprint that might also include riders like Pogacar, Bernal, Valverde and Landa.
