After today’s memorable stage that featured a worthy tribute to Bjorg Lambrecht, the race continues with a hilly stage.
A familiar hilly stage where sprinters/fast puncheurs who can survive the Przelecz Przeglbek (4.2km @ 6.3%) and the lap circuit will use the last 2.5km uphill at an inclination of 4% to decide who wins the stage. In an alternative scenario, a rider that escapes during the ascend of lap number two and descends quickly can make it all the way to the finish line. We do not see an early breakaway take the win here.
Rainy weather, but probably will not impact the outcome of the race given the uphill finish and the context of this years Tour of Poland.
Given the importance of the bonification seconds in this race, and the amount of riders participating in the race that are suited for these type of finishes, we expect an eventual breakaway to be reeled in after which the puncheurs and the more durable sprinters in the peloton will fight for the stage victory and the bonification seconds.
Riders want to be positioned upfront when we hit the final ascent, because from there on it will basically be a long sprint to the finish line. The finish therefore favors punchy riders with a sufficient, durable sprint to leave others behind them at the finish line. This brings us to our favorites.
Ulissi
More of a sprinting climber than a climbing sprinter, but if the race is made very-very tough he might be one of only few of the fast guys who does not get dropped. Will also try to pick up bonus seconds. Taking into account that Ulissi is UAE’s man tomorrow, Gaviria probably won’t challenge this finish.
Mezgec
Managed to pick up a stage win already and likes these kind of long sprint finishes. However, he won’t be given as much freedom as before his stage-win.
Van Poppel
Was very close already to winning a stage and prominently displayed himself in every stage so far. He likes uphill sprints and should be one of those sprinters who can survive this type of terrain. If he arrives at the final 500 meters in front of the bunch he has the kick to get Jumbo Visma a stage win.
Ackermann
This finish might be too tough for him (it was last year), and they might wanna use their resources to setup Davide Formolo for bonification seconds, who is another outsider for this stage.
Mohoric
Can win on a good day either from far out of by punching to the finish line. Has not won anything yet this year, but Bahrein stated that they were bringing him into the Tour of Poland as their sprinting option which resulted in two top 10 places in the first 3 finishes. We personally do not believe that he will be able to pull it off in tomorrow’s stage.
Jungels
Showed so much pure power during his lead-outs that he detached himself from the rest of the Quickstep lead-out. Given that Jakobsen will not be able to challenge for the win tomorrow, he might get a chance to go for his own chances. It won’t be the first time that Jungels attacks early and keeps the rest of the peloton wondering why they cannot pull him back in time.
Trek
Have several options in this stage with Degenkolb, Brambilla and Pedersen, but I do not think any of these riders currently has the quality plus the form to pull-off a stage win.
Outsiders: Higuita, Betancur, Swift, Gasparotto, Battaglin,
Stage 1: 5th, Stage 2: 4th, Stage 3: 2nd, Stage 5: ?
We think Danny van Poppel will win tomorrow’s stage and gain some well-deserved confidence for the upcoming Vuelta as it perfectly suits his quality’s and he will have the support of the whole Jumbo Visma squad to get him into position!
